Mercury Systems Stock Price Prediction
| MRCY Stock | USD 40.94 0.96 2.40% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
78
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.03) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.98) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.34 | Wall Street Target Price 34.25 |
Using Mercury Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercury Systems from the perspective of Mercury Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Mercury Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Mercury Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Mercury. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mercury can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mercury Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Mercury Systems' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Mercury Systems.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Mercury Systems to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Mercury because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Mercury Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 40.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Mercury |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mercury Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mercury Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mercury Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mercury Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mercury Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mercury Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mercury Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mercury Systems' historical news coverage. Mercury Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.33 and 44.17, respectively. We have considered Mercury Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mercury Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mercury Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mercury Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mercury Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mercury Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mercury Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 3.44 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
40.94 | 40.75 | 0.46 |
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Mercury Systems Hype Timeline
Mercury Systems is now traded for 40.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Mercury is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 40.75. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Mercury Systems is about 702.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.84. About 97.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.67. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mercury Systems has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.65. The entity recorded a loss per share of 2.04. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Mercury Systems had 2:1 split on the 21st of December 1999. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Mercury Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Mercury Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mercury Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mercury Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Mercury Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mercury Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CW | Curtiss Wright | (1.95) | 9 per month | 1.70 | 0.11 | 2.96 | (2.48) | 11.02 | |
| HXL | Hexcel | (1.53) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.00 | (2.66) | 6.19 | |
| KAMN | Kaman | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.21 | 0 | 5.37 | (3.75) | 14.48 | |
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | 1.24 | 9 per month | 1.53 | (0.04) | 2.90 | (2.30) | 8.32 | |
| WWD | Woodward | 0.08 | 8 per month | 1.34 | 0.02 | 2.52 | (1.93) | 6.52 | |
| AIR | AAR Corp | 0.83 | 9 per month | 1.91 | 0.01 | 2.64 | (3.52) | 14.62 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | (1.11) | 6 per month | 1.44 | 0.07 | 2.72 | (2.44) | 14.78 | |
| PKE | Park Electrochemical | 0.62 | 4 per month | 0.95 | 0.05 | 3.51 | (1.98) | 12.34 | |
| NPK | National Presto Industries | (1.62) | 3 per month | 1.37 | (0.01) | 2.43 | (2.44) | 8.03 | |
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.53 | 0.03 | 3.28 | (3.31) | 9.31 | |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | (2.48) | 8 per month | 2.10 | 0.10 | 2.95 | (3.45) | 21.00 | |
| MOG-B | Moog Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.05 | 4.69 | (2.87) | 16.09 |
Mercury Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercury price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercury using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercury charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Mercury Systems Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Mercury Systems stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Mercury Systems, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Mercury Systems based on analysis of Mercury Systems hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Mercury Systems's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Mercury Systems's related companies. | 2010 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 165.42 | 181.55 | 190.13 | PTB Ratio | 2.31 | 1.06 | 1.25 |
Story Coverage note for Mercury Systems
The number of cover stories for Mercury Systems depends on current market conditions and Mercury Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mercury Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mercury Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mercury Systems Short Properties
Mercury Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Mercury Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mercury Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mercury Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercury Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 180.5 M |
Additional Tools for Mercury Stock Analysis
When running Mercury Systems' price analysis, check to measure Mercury Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mercury Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Mercury Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mercury Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mercury Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mercury Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.