Our latest forecast of New (USA Stocks:NFE)

Timing is everything, especially when it comes to New Fortress Energy. The company faces a challenging outlook heading into 2025, with an expected EPS of -1.47, signaling ongoing losses that could weigh heavily on investor confidence. Despite a current market value of around $3.9 billion and a recent price near $3.80, the stock remains volatile, with a 52-week low of $2.01 and a short interest of about 48 million shares. Analysts see some potential, with a target price around $8.83 and a possible upside of nearly 16%, but the overall consensus leans toward a cautious buy. The company’s financial struggles and the energy sector’s volatility suggest that 2025 could be a make-or-break year for NFE, making it a risky bet for those looking for quick gains. Currently, New Fortress Energy’s stock compensation expenses are expected to rise notably, based on recent financial reports. This year, the change in working capital is projected to reach approximately $158.2 million, while the change in inventory is forecasted to dip to around $2.9 million. The main goal here is to evaluate New Fortress as an investment opportunity for August. We’ll explore why recent price movements hint at a potential rebound next month, offering a fresh perspective on its short-term prospects.
Published over a week ago
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Reviewed by Raphi Shpitalnik

New Fortress Energy is currently trading at $5.04 per share, which many see as undervalued given its modest growth outlook. The company's asset utilization ratio stands at 18.38%, meaning it earns about 18 cents for every dollar of assets. An upward trend in this metric suggests that New Fortress is becoming more efficient, making better use of its assets to generate revenue. With its current valuation and improving efficiency, the stock could present an attractive opportunity for investors looking for value in the energy sector.

Main Points

With an EPS forecast of -1.47 for next year and the stock trading well below its 200-day moving average of 8.97, NFE appears to face significant headwinds, making it a risky bet for now. However, its recent price action at 3.88 and a low risk-adjusted performance suggest that investors should approach with caution, as the company's future hinges on turning around its earnings and managing industry challenges.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Fortress Energy. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Predictive Modules for New Fortress

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as New Fortress. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against New Fortress' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, New Fortress' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in New Fortress Energy.

How important is New Fortress's Liquidity

New Fortress financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance New Fortress Energy ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. New Fortress financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to New Fortress' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of New Fortress' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between New Fortress's total debt and its cash.

New Fortress Gross Profit

New Fortress Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing New Fortress previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show New Fortress Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check New Fortress' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

What is driving New Fortress Investor Appetite?

The latest surge in New Fortress Energy short term price appreciation may encourage shareholders to take a closer look at the firm as it is trading at a share price of 3.88 on very low momentum in trading volume. The company management teams have successfully maneuvered the firm at convenient times to take advantage of all market conditions in June. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 12.25. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the New Fortress Energy partners.
 2024 2025 (projected)
Depreciation And Amortization162.5M170.7M
Interest Income8.2M8.2M
A rising tide lifts all boats, but for New Fortress Energy (NYSE:NFE), the outlook remains uncertain as the company faces significant challenges ahead. Despite a solid revenue of $2.36 billion and a market cap of $1.12 billion, the stock trades well below its 52-week high of nearly $26, with a current typical price of $3.80. The company’s negative earnings estimates for this year and next, combined with a high PEG ratio of 26.53, suggest that growth prospects are limited, and valuation remains stretched at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.19X. With a debt load of $9.5 billion and a probability of bankruptcy approaching 48%, investors should approach NFE with caution, especially as short interest remains elevated at 51 million shares. While the stock could see some short-term support if the upcoming quarter’s earnings turn positive, the long-term outlook appears risky given the company’s financial pressures and industry headwinds..

Can New Fortress build up on the latest surge?

Currently, New Fortress Energy's stock could dip to around $14.71, raising doubts about whether its recent rally can hold. If it fails to stay above this level, it might suggest the surge was temporary, and further declines could be on the horizon. The next move will be crucial in determining if this energy stock can turn its recent gains into a stronger foundation for future growth. The stock has shown above-average volatility recently, which can be both a risk and an opportunity. Monitoring volatility trends helps traders gauge market conditions and adjust their strategies accordingly.
During downturns, increased volatility can push prices lower, often prompting investors to rebalance their portfolios and seek safer assets.Looking ahead to 2025, investing in New Fortress Energy could prove to be a pivotal decision. The stock’s potential upside is substantial, with an estimated target price of around $8.83 and a possible increase of up to 15.7 points. While there’s some downside risk—possibly as low as $0.0388—the consensus among analysts remains optimistic, with a majority rating it a Buy and three strong buy recommendations. If the company can meet or exceed expectations, the valuation market value of 3.88 billion dollars might be just the beginning. However, investors should remain cautious, as the valuation hype value stands at 4.03, suggesting that market sentiment may be inflated in the short term. Overall, the balance of risks and rewards points toward a cautious but potentially rewarding entry, especially if New Fortress Energy can deliver on its growth prospects in the evolving energy landscape..

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of New Fortress Energy. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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