Dollar Tree Stock Price Prediction
| DLTR Stock | USD 63.54 1.13 1.81% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
37
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.32) | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.96 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.04 | Wall Street Target Price 82.18 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.04 |
Using Dollar Tree hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dollar Tree from the perspective of Dollar Tree response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Dollar Tree using Dollar Tree's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Dollar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Dollar Tree's stock price.
Dollar Tree Short Interest
An investor who is long Dollar Tree may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Dollar Tree and may potentially protect profits, hedge Dollar Tree with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 107.2957 | Short Percent 0.0644 | Short Ratio 3.19 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.8 M | 50 Day MA 69.9596 |
Dollar Tree Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Dollar Tree's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dollar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dollar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dollar Tree. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Dollar Tree's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Dollar Tree.
Dollar Tree Implied Volatility | 0.24 |
Dollar Tree's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dollar Tree stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dollar Tree's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dollar Tree stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dollar Tree's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Dollar Tree to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Dollar because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Dollar Tree after-hype prediction price | USD 63.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Dollar contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Dollar Tree will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.015% per day over the life of the 2024-11-08 option contract. With Dollar Tree trading at USD 63.54, that is roughly USD 0.009531 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Dollar Tree's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Dollar Tree options at the current volatility level of 0.24%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Dollar |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dollar Tree's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dollar Tree After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dollar Tree at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dollar Tree or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dollar Tree, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dollar Tree Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dollar Tree's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dollar Tree's historical news coverage. Dollar Tree's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.01 and 67.55, respectively. We have considered Dollar Tree's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dollar Tree is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dollar Tree is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dollar Tree Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dollar Tree is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dollar Tree backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dollar Tree, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.54 | 3.80 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
63.54 | 63.78 | 0.38 |
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Dollar Tree Hype Timeline
Dollar Tree is currently traded for 63.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.16. Dollar is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 63.78 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.38%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.54%. The volatility of related hype on Dollar Tree is about 1252.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.70. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 30.6 B. Net Loss for the year was (998.4 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.94 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Dollar Tree Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Dollar Tree Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dollar Tree's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dollar Tree's future price movements. Getting to know how Dollar Tree's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dollar Tree may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRK | Merck Company | 1.39 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 1.61 | (2.07) | 4.89 | |
| LICY | LiCycle Holdings Corp | 0.02 | 5 per month | 6.21 | 0.07 | 14.15 | (9.20) | 55.51 | |
| AA | Alcoa Corp | 0.35 | 9 per month | 2.36 | 0.17 | 6.03 | (4.39) | 13.50 | |
| CSTM | Constellium Nv | 0.72 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.76 | (4.20) | 33.72 | |
| CHHQF | China Hongqiao Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 43.48 | |
| NUE | Nucor Corp | (0.86) | 12 per month | 1.86 | 0.01 | 2.81 | (3.06) | 10.67 | |
| GURPX | Guggenheim Risk Managed | (0.13) | 1 per month | 0.60 | (0.16) | 1.24 | (0.95) | 3.33 | |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | 0.79 | 8 per month | 1.42 | 0.12 | 3.60 | (2.17) | 7.13 | |
| GCT | GigaCloud Technology Class | 0.45 | 11 per month | 4.59 | (0.0009) | 9.47 | (7.31) | 21.48 |
Dollar Tree Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dollar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dollar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dollar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Dollar Tree Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Dollar Tree stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Dollar Tree, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Dollar Tree based on analysis of Dollar Tree hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Dollar Tree's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Dollar Tree's related companies. | 2010 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 4.4E-4 | 3.52E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.41 | 1.19 |
Story Coverage note for Dollar Tree
The number of cover stories for Dollar Tree depends on current market conditions and Dollar Tree's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dollar Tree is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dollar Tree's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Dollar Tree Short Properties
Dollar Tree's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dollar Tree's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dollar Tree often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dollar Tree's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dollar Tree's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 219.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 684.9 M |
Additional Tools for Dollar Stock Analysis
When running Dollar Tree's price analysis, check to measure Dollar Tree's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dollar Tree is operating at the current time. Most of Dollar Tree's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dollar Tree's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dollar Tree's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dollar Tree to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.