Dollar Tree Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for Dollar Tree - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Dollar Tree prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Dollar Tree price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Dollar Tree.

Dollar Tree Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dollar Tree on the next trading day is expected to be 62.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.94, mean absolute percentage error of 10.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.66.

Dollar Tree Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Dollar Tree Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dollar Tree stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dollar Tree stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Dollar Tree observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Dollar Tree observations.

Predictive Modules for Dollar Tree

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dollar Tree. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 59.98 63.78 67.58 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 57.19 84.55 88.35 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 62.89 66.31 69.73 Details

29 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 136.65 150.17 166.69 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Dollar Tree

For every potential investor in Dollar, whether a beginner or expert, Dollar Tree's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dollar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dollar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dollar Tree's price trends.

Dollar Tree Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Dollar Tree Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dollar Tree's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dollar Tree's current price.

Dollar Tree Market Strength Events

Dollar Tree Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with Dollar Tree

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dollar Tree position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dollar Tree will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Additional Tools for Dollar Stock Analysis