First Watch Restaurant Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| FWRG Stock | USD 17.06 0.18 1.04% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding First Watch Restaurant is 'Sell'. Macroaxis provides First Watch buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding FWRG positions. Check out First Watch Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as First and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. First Watch Restaurant. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.
Execute First Watch Buy or Sell Advice
The First recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on First Watch Restaurant. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in First Watch Restaurant or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute First Watch's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Sell
Market Performance | Soft | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Moves slightly opposite to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
First Watch Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| First Watch had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| First Watch has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| First Watch Restaurant currently holds 809.55 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.95, which is about average as compared to similar companies. First Watch Restaurant has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about First Watch's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 98.0% of First Watch shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Philz Coffee Partners with Freeman Spogli for Next Phase of Growth |
First Watch Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of First Watch's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of First Watch's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of First Watch daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use First Watch Restaurant price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of First Watch returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for First Watch.
| Mean Return | 0.03 | Value At Risk | -5.07 | Potential Upside | 6.21 | Standard Deviation | 3.73 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of First Watch historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
First Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Granahan Investment Management Inc.. | 2025-03-31 | 1.6 M | Manufacturers Life Insurance Co | 2025-03-31 | 1.5 M | 12 West Capital Management Lp | 2025-03-31 | 1.5 M | Brown Advisory Holdings Inc | 2025-03-31 | 1.4 M | Riverbridge Partners Llc | 2025-06-30 | 1.3 M | Neuberger Berman Group Llc | 2025-03-31 | 1 M | Franklin Resources Inc | 2025-03-31 | 1 M | Penn Capital Management Company Llc | 2025-03-31 | 1 M | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2025-03-31 | 981.9 K | Advent International Lp | 2025-03-31 | 19.2 M | Blackrock Inc | 2025-03-31 | 2.9 M |
First Watch Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (203K) | (1.1M) | (1.0M) | (62K) | (508K) | (533.4K) | |
| Change In Cash | 28.0M | 13.0M | (2.2M) | 38K | (16.6M) | (15.8M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 56.9M | 33.3M | (189.3M) | (3.4M) | (3.0M) | (3.2M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (45.3M) | 27.3M | (393K) | 10.7M | (12.3M) | (12.9M) | |
| Depreciation | 30.7M | 32.4M | 34.2M | 41.2M | 57.7M | 39.4M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 13.3M | 16.0M | 17.2M | 20.1M | 23.7M | 22.2M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 27.0M | 35.7M | 63.3M | 84.5M | 127.9M | 68.4M | |
| Net Income | (49.7M) | (2.1M) | 6.9M | 25.4M | 18.9M | 19.9M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 39.1M | 52.1M | 49.9M | 50.0M | 33.3M | 39.6M | |
| Change To Netincome | 33.5M | (7.2M) | 25.6M | 31.8M | 36.6M | 18.8M | |
| Investments | (27.0M) | (35.7M) | (63.1M) | (100.0M) | (206.7M) | (196.3M) |
First Watch Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to First Watch or Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that First Watch's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a First stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.53 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
First Watch Volatility Alert
First Watch Restaurant shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure First Watch's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact First Watch's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.First Watch Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing First Watch's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze First Watch's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between First Watch and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as First Watch or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of First Watch's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing First Watch by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare First Watch to competition |
| Fundamentals | First Watch | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0186 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.015 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.01 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.01 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 1.87 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 60.99 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 2.20 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 97.80 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 6.48 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 282.50 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.72 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.00 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.02 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 219.97 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 98.38 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 18.93 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 53.57 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.91 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 809.55 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.95 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.75 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 9.78 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 115.67 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 7.77 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 0.17 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.17 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 21.45 | |
| Number Of Employees | 15 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 0.92 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.05 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.51 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (53.82 M) | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | (82.6 M) | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by Solheim Jostein of 5263 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
First Watch Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as First . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About First Watch Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell First Watch Restaurant? Buying financial instruments such as First Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having First Watch in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Large capitalization equities showing high long-term performance indicators and above average return expectations based on Macroaxis rating system. The Power Assets theme has 49 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Power Assets Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out First Watch Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Watch. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Watch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | Earnings Share 0.17 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.164 | Return On Assets |
The market value of First Watch Restaurant is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Watch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Watch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Watch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Watch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Watch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Watch is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Watch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.