Magna International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MGA Stock  USD 41.61  1.35  3.14%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magna International on the next trading day is expected to be 41.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.67. Magna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Magna International stock prices and determine the direction of Magna International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Magna International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Magna International's Payables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 7.07, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 7.99. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 356.6 M. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 1.2 B.
Most investors in Magna International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Magna International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Magna International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the accuracy of the generated results.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1990-06-30
Previous Quarter
1.5 B
Current Value
998.9 M
Quarterly Volatility
785 M
 
Oil Shock
 
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Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Magna International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Magna International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Magna International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of October

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magna International on the next trading day is expected to be 41.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 0.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magna International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Magna International Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Magna InternationalMagna International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Magna International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Magna International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Magna International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.62 and 43.99, respectively. We have considered Magna International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
41.61
41.81
Expected Value
43.99
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magna International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magna International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.8205
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7205
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0177
SAESum of the absolute errors44.6712
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Magna International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Magna International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Magna International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magna International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Magna International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
39.4241.6143.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
37.4553.9356.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
33.0541.9350.81
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
60.7766.7874.13
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Magna International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Magna International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Magna International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Magna International.

Other Forecasting Options for Magna International

For every potential investor in Magna, whether a beginner or expert, Magna International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Magna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Magna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Magna International's price trends.

Magna International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Magna International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Magna International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Magna International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Magna International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Magna International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Magna International's current price.

Magna International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Magna International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Magna International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Magna International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Magna International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Magna International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Magna International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Magna International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting magna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Magna International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Magna International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Magna International Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Magna International Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magna International to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Magna Stock refer to our How to Trade Magna Stock guide.
You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Magna International. If investors know Magna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Magna International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.08)
Dividend Share
1.885
Earnings Share
3.44
Revenue Per Share
150.227
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0)
The market value of Magna International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Magna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Magna International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Magna International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Magna International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Magna International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Magna International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Magna International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Magna International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.