Magna International Stock Price Prediction
| MGA Stock | USD 41.40 1.23 2.89% |
Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.258 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0719 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.6326 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.6924 | Wall Street Target Price 41.255 |
Using Magna International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Magna International from the perspective of Magna International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Magna International using Magna International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Magna using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Magna International's stock price.
Magna International Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Magna International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Magna. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Magna International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 39.1351 | Short Percent 0.0307 | Short Ratio 4.39 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.9 M | 50 Day MA 38.059 |
Magna International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Magna International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Magna. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Magna can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Magna International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Magna International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Magna International.
Magna International Implied Volatility | 0.52 |
Magna International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Magna International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Magna International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Magna International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Magna International's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Magna International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Magna because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Magna International after-hype prediction price | USD 41.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Magna contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Magna International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0325% per day over the life of the 2025-09-19 option contract. With Magna International trading at USD 41.4, that is roughly USD 0.0135 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Magna International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Magna International options at the current volatility level of 0.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Magna International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Magna International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Magna International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Magna International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Magna International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Magna International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Magna International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Magna International's historical news coverage. Magna International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.66 and 43.34, respectively. We have considered Magna International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Magna International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Magna International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Magna International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Magna International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Magna International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Magna International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 1.84 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
41.40 | 41.50 | 0.24 |
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Magna International Hype Timeline
On the 20th of July Magna International is traded for 41.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Magna is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 41.5 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.24%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on Magna International is about 7248.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.39. The company reported the last year's revenue of 42.84 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 960.55 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.71 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Magna International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Magna International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Magna International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Magna International's future price movements. Getting to know how Magna International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Magna International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings | (2.84) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.01 | (2.93) | 8.81 | |
| APTV | Aptiv PLC | 1.01 | 8 per month | 1.15 | 0.17 | 3.72 | (2.26) | 11.49 | |
| LKQ | LKQ Corporation | 1.01 | 29 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.54 | (2.36) | 14.11 | |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | 1.96 | 11 per month | 1.21 | 0.16 | 4.13 | (2.48) | 8.54 | |
| BWA | BorgWarner | (0.38) | 9 per month | 0.87 | 0.19 | 3.92 | (1.70) | 6.34 | |
| ALV | Autoliv | (0.54) | 9 per month | 0.82 | 0.21 | 3.25 | (1.47) | 7.29 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | (0.61) | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.27 | 4.59 | (2.31) | 10.00 | |
| GNTX | Gentex | 1.01 | 10 per month | 1.23 | (0.01) | 2.51 | (2.38) | 8.03 | |
| ADNT | Adient PLC | 1.45 | 11 per month | 1.04 | 0.32 | 6.70 | (2.69) | 13.27 | |
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | (0.03) | 9 per month | 2.04 | 0.11 | 5.07 | (4.23) | 16.27 | |
| DAN | Dana Inc | (0.62) | 9 per month | 1.30 | 0.21 | 4.80 | (2.60) | 10.01 | |
| DORM | Dorman Products | (1.85) | 6 per month | 1.69 | (0.01) | 2.14 | (2.78) | 10.18 | |
| AXL | American Axle Manufacturing | 0.1 | 12 per month | 1.99 | 0.15 | 7.24 | (4.16) | 15.90 |
Magna International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Magna price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Magna using various technical indicators. When you analyze Magna charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Magna International Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Magna International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Magna International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Magna International based on analysis of Magna International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Magna International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Magna International's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0303 | 0.0309 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.43 | 0.4 |
Story Coverage note for Magna International
The number of cover stories for Magna International depends on current market conditions and Magna International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Magna International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Magna International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Magna International Short Properties
Magna International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Magna International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Magna International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Magna International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magna International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 286.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Complementary Tools for Magna Stock analysis
When running Magna International's price analysis, check to measure Magna International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Magna International is operating at the current time. Most of Magna International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Magna International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Magna International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Magna International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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