Iris Energy Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

IREN Stock  USD 15.39  1.24  8.76%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Iris Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 11.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.63. Iris Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Iris Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Iris Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Iris Energy fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 9th of December 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 9.88, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 17.79. . As of the 9th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 58.3 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to drop to about (162.4 M).

Open Interest Against 2024-12-13 Iris Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Iris Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Iris Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Iris Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Iris Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Iris Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Iris Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Iris. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Iris Energy is based on a synthetically constructed Iris Energydaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Iris Energy 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Iris Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 11.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.28, mean absolute percentage error of 2.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 52.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Iris Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Iris Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Iris Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Iris EnergyIris Energy Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Iris Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Iris Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Iris Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.20 and 19.69, respectively. We have considered Iris Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.39
11.95
Expected Value
19.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Iris Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Iris Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria82.3943
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.1566
MADMean absolute deviation1.2836
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1094
SAESum of the absolute errors52.628
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Iris Energy 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Iris Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Iris Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Iris Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.6214.3722.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.2011.9519.70
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.6212.5916.57
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
9.8210.7911.98
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Iris Energy

For every potential investor in Iris, whether a beginner or expert, Iris Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Iris Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Iris. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Iris Energy's price trends.

Iris Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Iris Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Iris Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Iris Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Iris Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Iris Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Iris Energy's current price.

Iris Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Iris Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Iris Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Iris Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Iris Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Iris Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Iris Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Iris Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting iris stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Iris Energy

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Iris Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Iris Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Iris Stock

  0.82MS Morgan Stanley Sell-off TrendPairCorr
  0.73GCMGW GCM GrosvenorPairCorr

Moving against Iris Stock

  0.5KREF KKR Real EstatePairCorr
  0.48GROW US Global InvestorsPairCorr
  0.41EFC Ellington FinancialPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Iris Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Iris Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Iris Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Iris Energy to buy it.
The correlation of Iris Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Iris Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Iris Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Iris Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Iris Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Iris Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Iris Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Iris Energy Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Iris Energy to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Iris Stock, please use our How to Invest in Iris Energy guide.
You can also try the Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Iris Energy. If investors know Iris will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Iris Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.48)
Revenue Per Share
1.894
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.679
Return On Assets
(0.02)
Return On Equity
(0.04)
The market value of Iris Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Iris that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Iris Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Iris Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Iris Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Iris Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Iris Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Iris Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Iris Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.