General Dynamics Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| GD Stock | USD 284.01 1.70 0.60% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of General Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 284.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.44. General Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast General Dynamics stock prices and determine the direction of General Dynamics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of General Dynamics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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General Dynamics Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of General Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 284.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.26, mean absolute percentage error of 23.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict General Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that General Dynamics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
General Dynamics Stock Forecast Pattern
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General Dynamics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting General Dynamics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. General Dynamics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 282.89 and 285.70, respectively. We have considered General Dynamics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of General Dynamics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent General Dynamics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5045 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.2617 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 192.4406 |
Predictive Modules for General Dynamics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as General Dynamics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of General Dynamics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for General Dynamics
For every potential investor in General, whether a beginner or expert, General Dynamics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. General Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in General. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying General Dynamics' price trends.General Dynamics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with General Dynamics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of General Dynamics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing General Dynamics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
General Dynamics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of General Dynamics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of General Dynamics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
General Dynamics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how General Dynamics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading General Dynamics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying General Dynamics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify General Dynamics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
General Dynamics Risk Indicators
The analysis of General Dynamics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in General Dynamics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting general stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9279 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Variance | 1.95 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of General Dynamics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade General Stock refer to our How to Trade General Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of General Dynamics. If investors know General will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about General Dynamics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.102 | Dividend Share 5.58 | Earnings Share 13.12 | Revenue Per Share 168.226 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.104 |
The market value of General Dynamics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of General that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of General Dynamics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is General Dynamics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because General Dynamics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect General Dynamics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between General Dynamics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if General Dynamics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, General Dynamics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.