AMCON Distributing Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

DIT Stock  USD 125.13  4.10  3.39%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of AMCON Distributing on the next trading day is expected to be 125.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 230.96. AMCON Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Inventory Turnover is likely to gain to 23.19 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 43.12 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 685.9 K in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 20.1 M in 2024.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through AMCON Distributing price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

AMCON Distributing Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of AMCON Distributing on the next trading day is expected to be 125.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.79, mean absolute percentage error of 20.51, and the sum of the absolute errors of 230.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMCON Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMCON Distributing's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AMCON Distributing Stock Forecast Pattern

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AMCON Distributing Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AMCON Distributing's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AMCON Distributing's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 121.68 and 128.96, respectively. We have considered AMCON Distributing's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
125.13
121.68
Downside
125.32
Expected Value
128.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMCON Distributing stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMCON Distributing stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.1312
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.7862
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0282
SAESum of the absolute errors230.9588
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as AMCON Distributing historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for AMCON Distributing

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMCON Distributing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
121.19124.83128.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
117.03120.67137.64
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
119.90123.76127.63
Details

Other Forecasting Options for AMCON Distributing

For every potential investor in AMCON, whether a beginner or expert, AMCON Distributing's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AMCON Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AMCON. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AMCON Distributing's price trends.

AMCON Distributing Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AMCON Distributing stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AMCON Distributing could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AMCON Distributing by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AMCON Distributing Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AMCON Distributing's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AMCON Distributing's current price.

AMCON Distributing Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AMCON Distributing stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AMCON Distributing shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AMCON Distributing stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AMCON Distributing entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AMCON Distributing Risk Indicators

The analysis of AMCON Distributing's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AMCON Distributing's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amcon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for AMCON Stock Analysis

When running AMCON Distributing's price analysis, check to measure AMCON Distributing's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AMCON Distributing is operating at the current time. Most of AMCON Distributing's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AMCON Distributing's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AMCON Distributing's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AMCON Distributing to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.