From a technical standpoint, 1st Source (SRCE) shows promising signs for investors. With a low PE Ratio of
9.94 and a Price Book of
1.19, the stock is undervalued, suggesting potential for growth. However, investors should be aware of the company's negative Jensen Alpha of -0.04, indicating underperformance when adjusting for risk.
Main Ideas
1st Source Corp. stock has an average "Buy" rating from three analysts. This consensus is typically based on technical analysis, which uses price momentum, patterns, and trends from historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on market sentiment and investors' perception of 1st Source's future value. The company's profit margin is 0.34%, suggesting that even a minor decline in revenue could lead to a net loss, which is significantly below average. Additionally, it has an operating margin of 0.43%, indicating that for every $100 of sales, the company generates a net operating income of $0.43.
Using predictive
technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and
diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of 1st Source. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing 1st Source stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build 1st Source's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as
momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional
technical analysis and
fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of
1st Source's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for 1st Source, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect 1st Source price patterns. Please read more on our
technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed
many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 1st Source's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 1st Source. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 1st Source's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 1st Source's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in 1st Source.
How does 1st Stands against Peers?
Analyzing 1st Source competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to 1st Source across multiple sectors and
thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be. Check out
1st Source Competition Details1st Source Gross Profit
1st Source Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing 1st Source previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show 1st Source Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check 1st Source's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Closer look at 1st Source Variance
1st Source has current Variance of 4.04. Variance is another measure of security risk that shows the amount of dispersion of equity returns around their mean value. Variance is calculated as the average squared deviations from the mean. Evaluating a set of investment alternatives one can use variance to help determine the volatility when purchasing a specific security. Similar to Standard Deviation, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out around its mean.
Variance is also a measure of stock volatility and can help determine the risk an investor might take on when purchasing a specific security.
A relatively big variance indicates that the daily prices or returns are far from the mean and a small variance indicates that they are located around the mean.
Variance | = | SUM(RET DEV)2N |
| = | 4.04 |
| SUM | = | Summation notation |
| RET DEV | = | Actual returns deviation over selected period |
| N | = | Number of points for the period |
Let's now compare 1st Source Variance to its closest peers:
| SRCE | 4.0405357406448 |
| HMNF | 2.34 |
| LSBK | 2.39 |
| RBKB | 5.64 |
Every cloud has a silver lining, and for 1st Source (SRCE), that silver lining could be its strong
fundamentals despite a challenging market environment. With a net asset value of $8.73B and a net income of $124.93M, the company's
financial health appears robust. The firm's operating margin stands at 0.43%, and it has a payout ratio of 26.29%, indicating a balanced approach to returning profits to shareholders. However, the company's shares are trading below their 50-day moving average of $50.15, suggesting some bearish sentiment in the market. Despite this, with a PE ratio of 9.94 and a target price of $56, there could be potential upside for investors willing to weather the storm. .
Will 1st Source latest surge continue?
The recent uptick in 1st Source's stock performance has piqued investor interest. However, the company's current Treynor ratio, a key metric measuring
risk-adjusted returns, stands at 0.0. This implies that the company isn't generating excess returns for the risk it's undertaking. Despite the recent stock surge, the current Treynor ratio may suggest this trend might not persist. Investors are advised to exercise caution and thoroughly examine other financial indicators before deciding. 1st Source's stock exhibits relatively low volatility, with a skewness of 0.2 and kurtosis of 1.25. Understanding
market volatility trends can aid investors in market timing. Proper use of volatility indicators can help traders gauge 1st Source's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends.
The heightened volatility of bear markets can directly affect
1st Source's stock price, causing investor stress as share values drop, often prompting portfolio rebalancing. In conclusion, 1st Source stock has shown a promising trajectory that could potentially continue. The stock's current valuation market value stands at
$50.01, with a possible upside price of $50.77, indicating a potential for growth. The analyst overall consensus recommends a 'Buy' with one analyst signaling a buy and two holding. Furthermore, the analyst target price estimated value is $48.67, with the highest estimated target price reaching
$54.02. This suggests that there is room for the stock to grow further. However, investors should also consider the possible downside price of $46.93. Overall, the data suggests that 1st Source could indeed continue its upward trend, but as with any investment, it's crucial to consider all factors and potential risks. .
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Aina Ster is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Aina delivers weekly perspective on ongoing market and economic trends, analysis and tips from predictive analysis to forecasting across various financial instruments.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Aina Ster do not own shares of 1st Source. Please refer to our
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