FirstService Corp has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company exhibits a Beta (market volatility) of 0.695, suggesting potential diversification benefits within a given portfolio. To interpret what FirstService's beta implies, as market returns increase, FirstService Corp's returns are expected to rise less than the market. Conversely, during a bear market, the losses from holding FirstService Corp are expected to be less severe.
While it's crucial to consider FirstService Corp's historical returns, it's more beneficial to be pragmatic about the equity's current trending patterns. The approach to forecasting the future performance of any stock involves a comprehensive evaluation of the business, including its past performance, as well as all available fundamental and technical indicators.
By examining FirstService Corp's technical indicators, we can currently assess whether the expected return of 0.0722% will be sustainable in the future. At present, FirstService Corp exhibits a risk of 1.08%. Please verify FirstService Corp's potential upside, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and the price action indicator, to determine if FirstService Corp will continue to follow its price patterns.
Rigorous look on FirstService
FirstService Corp, a prominent player in the Real Estate Services industry, has been a subject of intense discussion among investors. The stock's Coefficient Of Variation stands at a staggering
982.16, indicating a high level of risk relative to the potential return. The company's Standard Deviation is 1.14, further emphasizing the volatility of the stock. However, the Treynor Ratio of 0.153 suggests that the risk-adjusted performance is relatively satisfactory. On the downside, the stock has experienced a Maximum Drawdown of
5.1, which is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. The stock's Price Percent Change is -0.0382, indicating a loss in value. The Value At Risk (VaR) is -1.73, which means there is a 5% chance that the stock will drop by this amount over a certain period. In conclusion, while FirstService Corp stock presents potential for high returns, it comes with a high level of risk. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance before deciding to retain or reconsider their investment in FirstService Corp.
The successful prediction of FirstService Corp
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as FirstService Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of FirstService Corp based on FirstService Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to FirstService Corp's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to FirstService Corp's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project FirstService expected Price
FirstService Corp technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of FirstService Corp technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of FirstService Corp trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...FirstService Corp Gross Profit
FirstService Corp Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing FirstService Corp previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show FirstService Corp Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check FirstService Corp's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Another Deeper Perspective
This firm reported the last year's revenue of 3.75
B. Total Income to common stockholders was 145.01
M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.18
B.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) |
Book Value per Share | 15.92 | 18.2 | 15.25 | 14.1 | Asset Turnover | 1.34 | 1.39 | 1.44 | 1.49 |
Deferred Revenue Breakdown
FirstService Corp Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be fairly stable with very little volatility. Deferred Revenue will likely drop to about 105.7
M in 2023. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Where this item is not contained on the company consolidated financial statements and cannot otherwise be imputed the value of 0 is used. FirstService Corp Deferred Revenue is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. FirstService Corp reported Deferred Revenue of 125.54 Million in 2022
| 2016 | 28.87 Million |
| 2017 | 54.57 Million |
| 2018 | 50.2 Million |
| 2019 | 86.69 Million |
| 2020 | 104.07 Million |
| 2021 | 131.5 Million |
| 2022 | 125.54 Million |
| 2023 | 105.7 Million |
FirstService Corp, a key player in the Real Estate Services industry, is currently traded on NASDAQ with a market capitalization of
$6.99B. Over the past five years, the company has delivered a return of 0.58%, with a current price to earnings ratio of 53.33X, indicating a high valuation. However, with a beta of 1, the stock exhibits the same volatility as the market, suggesting a balanced risk-reward profile. The company boasts a net asset value of $2.77B and has demonstrated a solid operating margin of 0.06%. It also holds a current ratio of 1.77X, reflecting a healthy short-term
financial health. However, it carries a total debt of
$952.16M, which could pose a risk to its financial stability. In terms of ownership, 79.44% of FirstService Corp's shares are held by institutions, while insiders own 11.29%. Despite the significant short interest, with 316.59K shares shorted and a short ratio of 5.64X, the company has managed to maintain a positive net income of $145.01M. Investors should be aware of the company's probability of bankruptcy, which stands at 9.10%. However, with a Z Score of 6.36, the company is not likely to face financial distress in the near future. Reevaluating your investment strategy, it may be time to retain your FirstService Corp stock, given its stable performance and solid financial health.
FirstService Corp has 80 percent chance to fall way below $154 in August
Despite the recent increase in Risk Adjusted Performance to 0.07, FirstService Corp could potentially face headwinds that may lead to a decrease in its stock price. Current market conditions and internal factors may trigger a downward trajectory for the company's shares. Analysts anticipate an 80 percent probability that the stock could significantly fall below the $154 mark in August. This potential decline could pose a substantial risk to investors, indicating a bearish outlook for FirstService Corp in the near term. As of July 27th, FirstService Corp has a Coefficient Of Variation of 982.16, a downside deviation of 1.06, and a Mean Deviation of 0.8891. Technical analysis of FirstService Corp allows the utilization of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that predicts the direction of the company's future prices. In other words, this information can be used to ascertain whether the company will mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or if the prices will eventually revert. We can interpolate and collect nineteen technical drivers for FirstService Corp, which can be compared to its
competitors.
Please verify FirstService Corp's variance and potential upside to determine if FirstService Corp is priced favorably, given that the market reflects its regular price of $156.84 per share. Considering that FirstService Corp has a Jensen Alpha of 0.0597, we recommend that you confirm FirstService Corp's current market performance to ensure the company can sustain itself in the future. In conclusion, FirstService Corp (FSV) has recently experienced a downward trend in the market. However, with an Analyst Overall Consensus of 'Buy', and 4 out of 6 analysts indicating a 'Strong Buy', the company still holds potential for investors. The Valuation Market Value stands at
156.84, slightly above the Naive Expected Forecast Value of 152.11, indicating a possible overvaluation. However, the Analyst Target Price Estimated Value is at a promising
165.166, suggesting a potential upside. The lowest and highest estimated target prices by analysts are 145 and 180 respectively, offering a wide range of possibilities. Despite the current slide, FirstService Corp may still be a viable investment option, but investors should exercise caution and conduct further research. .
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Raphi Shpitalnik is a Junior Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Raphael is a young entrepreneur who joined Macroaxis on a part-time basis at the beginning of the pandemic and eventually acquired a real taste for investing and fintech. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries, focusing primarily on consumer products, sports, fintech, cannabis, and AI.
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