Century Communities, a key player in the Residential Construction industry, saw its stock rally recently, with a 1% reset in its price, offering an attractive investment opportunity. The company's typical day price stands at
$73.69, with a real valuation of
$74.39, slightly above the market value of $73.85. The valuation hype value stands at $73.23, indicating a potential overvaluation. However, with an accumulation distribution of 9.2K and a positive rate of daily change at 0.99, the stock's momentum seems strong. Analysts' estimates for the target price range from a low of $54.5 to a high of
$89, with an estimated average target price of $75.166. With 2 strong buys, 1 hold, and 1 strong sell, the overall
analyst consensus is a 'Hold'. Despite a negative price action indicator of -0.31 and a daily balance of power showing a loss of 0.37, the stock's current rally and future potential make it an interesting prospect for investors in the Consumer Cyclical category. The predictive indicators we utilize to assess Century aid investors in analyzing its daily demand and supply, volume, patterns, and price fluctuations to ascertain the true value of Century Communities. We employ various methods to determine the intrinsic value of Century, based on widely accepted predictive technical indicators. Today's article will examine Century Communities. We will discuss why we maintain our confidence in the prospect of a recovery.
The successful prediction of Century Communities
stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published
stock prices of traded companies, such as Century Communities, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at
the intrinsic value of Century Communities based on Century Communities hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used
predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Century Communities's
market risk, different
technical and
fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then
comparing them to Century Communities's related companies.
Use Technical Analysis to project Century expected Price
Century Communities technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Century Communities technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Century Communities trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions.
More Info...Century Communities Gross Profit
Century Communities Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Century Communities previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Century Communities Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Century Communities'
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Is Century Communities valued wisely by the market?
Century Communities reported the last year's revenue of 4.51
B. Total Income to common stockholders was 525.13
M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.14
B.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) |
Consolidated Income | 206.16 M | 498.5 M | 525.13 M | 566.58 M | Direct Expenses | 2.54 B | 3.17 B | 3.37 B | 3.64 B |
Cost of Revenue Breakdown
Century Communities Cost of Revenue yearly trend continues to be comparatively stable with very little volatility. Cost of Revenue is likely to outpace its year average in 2023. Cost of Revenue usually refers to the aggregate cost of goods produced and sold and services rendered during the reporting period. Where this item is not contained on the company consolidated financial statements and cannot otherwise be imputed the value of 0 is used. Century Communities Cost of Revenue is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Century Communities reported Cost of Revenue of 3.37 Billion in 2022
| 2016 | 800.34 Million |
| 2017 | 1.17 Billion |
| 2018 | 1.77 Billion |
| 2019 | 2.08 Billion |
| 2020 | 2.54 Billion |
| 2021 | 3.17 Billion |
| 2022 | 3.37 Billion |
| 2023 | 3.64 Billion |
Century Communities, a prominent player in the Residential Construction industry, is garnering attention in the investment community following a 1% reset in its stock price. This reset offers an attractive investment opportunity, with the stock currently trading at a day typical price of $73.69, close to its target price of $74.67. With a market capitalization of
$2.41B, Century Communities has a robust
financial health, demonstrated by its current ratio of 7.82X and net assets of
$3.77B. The company's
financial performance has been impressive, boasting an EBITDA of $715.05M and a net income of $525.13M. This profitability is reflected in the company's operating margin of 0.13% and profit margin of 0.1%. The firm has a strong ownership structure, with 91.10% of shares owned by institutions and 12.07% by insiders. Despite a total debt of $1.22B, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is a manageable 0.70%, indicating a balanced capital structure. The firm's risk-adjusted performance of 0.0858 and Sortino Ratio of 0.0708 further underscore its sound risk management practices. With a potential upside of 3.81% and a low probability of bankruptcy at 12.35%, Century Communities stock seems a promising investment.
Will Century drop impact its fundamentals?
The semi-variance of Century Communities stock has declined to 3.11 as of today, indicating a reduction in the volatility of the stock's returns. This could potentially imply a more stable outlook for the company's
future performance. However, investors should closely observe whether this diminished volatility will affect the company's fundamentals. A decrease in volatility could either represent a positive trend, with the company's operations becoming more stable, or it could suggest a lack of growth potential. Therefore, while the decrease in semi-variance may initially appear promising, its effect on Century's
fundamentals is yet to be determined. Currently, Century Communities exhibits a below-average downside deviation. It has an Information Ratio of 0.08 and a Jensen Alpha of 0.12. However, we recommend investors to further scrutinize Century Communities' expected returns to ensure all indicators align with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different
market volatility trends often assists investors in timing the market.
Proper utilization of volatility indicators allows traders to measure Century Communities' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The heightened level of volatility that accompanies bear markets can directly affect
Century Communities' stock price, adding stress to investors as they witness their shares' value decline. This typically compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices drop. In conclusion, Century Communities' stock presents a mixed investment opportunity. With a valuation market value of
73.85 and a real value of
74.39, the stock is currently trading close to its intrinsic value. The
analyst consensus is a 'Hold', with 1 strong sell, 1 hold, and 2 strong buys. The estimated target price ranges from 54.5 to 89, with an average estimated value of 75.166. Given these factors, investors should consider their risk tolerance and investment horizon before deciding to invest in Century Communities. The company's fiscal year ends in December, which may provide further insights into its performance and potential growth. .
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Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Century Communities. Please refer to our
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