Triumph Group Stock Price Prediction
| TGI Stock | USD 276.00 0.00 0.00% |
Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.95) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1193 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7399 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.0602 | Wall Street Target Price 26 |
Using Triumph hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triumph Group from the perspective of Triumph response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Triumph using Triumph's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Triumph using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Triumph's stock price.
Triumph Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Triumph's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Triumph. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Triumph stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 22.5851 | Short Percent 0.1572 | Short Ratio 6.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 7.8 M | 50 Day MA 25.804 |
Triumph Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Triumph's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Triumph. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Triumph can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Triumph Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Triumph's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Triumph.
Triumph Implied Volatility | 0.94 |
Triumph's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Triumph Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Triumph's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Triumph stock will not fluctuate a lot when Triumph's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Triumph to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Triumph because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Triumph after-hype prediction price | USD 337.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Triumph contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Triumph Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0588% per day over the life of the 2025-12-19 option contract. With Triumph trading at USD 276.0, that is roughly USD 0.16 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Triumph's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Triumph Group options at the current volatility level of 0.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate. Triumph After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Triumph at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triumph or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triumph, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Triumph Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Triumph's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triumph's historical news coverage. Triumph's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.87 and 27,937, respectively. We have considered Triumph's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Triumph is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triumph Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Triumph Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triumph is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triumph backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triumph, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
18.61 | 129.28 | 61.41 | 14.68 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
276.00 | 337.41 | 22.25 |
|
Triumph Hype Timeline
On the 6th of October Triumph Group is traded for 276.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 61.41, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 14.68. Triumph is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 337.41 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 22.25%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 18.61%. The volatility of related hype on Triumph is about 16394.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 290.68. Triumph Group has 987.03 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 319.2, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Triumph Group has a current ratio of 2.21, demonstrating that it is liquid and is capable to disburse its financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Triumph to invest in growth at high rates of return. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate.Triumph Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Triumph's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triumph's future price movements. Getting to know how Triumph's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triumph may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AIR | AAR Corp | 1.19 | 10 per month | 1.82 | 0.06 | 4.17 | (2.56) | 19.59 | |
| CW | Curtiss Wright | 0.13 | 9 per month | 1.68 | 0.07 | 3.02 | (2.07) | 10.11 | |
| DCO | Ducommun Incorporated | 0.93 | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.08 | 3.43 | (2.11) | 8.43 | |
| HEI | Heico | 5.28 | 9 per month | 1.84 | (0.03) | 1.83 | (1.90) | 13.48 | |
| HXL | Hexcel | (0.98) | 9 per month | 1.03 | 0.08 | 2.97 | (2.01) | 6.53 | |
| ISSC | Innovative Solutions and | (0.20) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.50 | (4.72) | 44.10 | |
| SPR | Spirit Aerosystems Holdings | (0.83) | 8 per month | 1.21 | (0.04) | 2.79 | (2.05) | 6.73 |
Triumph Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Triumph price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triumph using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triumph charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Triumph Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Triumph stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Triumph Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Triumph based on analysis of Triumph hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Triumph's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Triumph's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0213 | 0.0224 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.55 | 0.85 |
Story Coverage note for Triumph
The number of cover stories for Triumph depends on current market conditions and Triumph's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Triumph is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Triumph's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Triumph Short Properties
Triumph's future price predictability will typically decrease when Triumph's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Triumph Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Triumph's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triumph's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 78 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 277.2 M |
Complementary Tools for Triumph Stock analysis
When running Triumph's price analysis, check to measure Triumph's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Triumph is operating at the current time. Most of Triumph's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Triumph's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Triumph's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Triumph to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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