Li Auto Stock Price Prediction
| LI Stock | USD 25.65 0.13 0.50% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.23 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.02 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.59 | Wall Street Target Price 31.02 |
Using Li Auto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Li Auto from the perspective of Li Auto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Li Auto Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Li Auto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Li Auto. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Li Auto can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Li Auto. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Li Auto's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Li Auto.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Li Auto to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Li Auto because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Li Auto after-hype prediction price | USD 26.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Li Auto |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Li Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Li Auto After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Li Auto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Li Auto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Li Auto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Li Auto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Li Auto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Li Auto's historical news coverage. Li Auto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.97 and 30.35, respectively. We have considered Li Auto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Li Auto is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Li Auto is based on 3 months time horizon.
Li Auto Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Li Auto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Li Auto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Li Auto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 4.19 | 0.51 | 0.23 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.65 | 26.16 | 1.99 |
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Li Auto Hype Timeline
As of October 1, 2024 Li Auto is listed for 25.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.23. Li Auto is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 26.16 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.99%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.43%. The volatility of related hype on Li Auto is about 775.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.42. The company generated the yearly revenue of 123.85 B. Reported Net Income was 11.81 M with gross profit of 8.79 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Li Auto Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Li Auto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Li Auto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Li Auto's future price movements. Getting to know how Li Auto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Li Auto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NIO | Nio Class A | 0.18 | 9 per month | 3.83 | 0.13 | 10.96 | (6.33) | 21.60 | |
| RIVN | Rivian Automotive | 0.06 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.74 | (7.03) | 19.93 | |
| LCID | Lucid Group | 0.04 | 10 per month | 4.42 | 0.08 | 9.97 | (5.83) | 40.06 | |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc | (3.27) | 9 per month | 4.00 | 0.1 | 6.34 | (6.55) | 22.53 | |
| XPEV | Xpeng Inc | 0.21 | 11 per month | 3.98 | 0.14 | 9.00 | (5.93) | 18.04 | |
| FSR | Fisker Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.70 | 0.07 | 9.41 | (7.36) | 37.41 | |
| MULN | Mullen Automotive | (1.98) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.56) | 5.88 | (17.65) | 67.53 | |
| BYDDF | BYD Company Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.55 | 0.09 | 4.08 | (2.77) | 8.24 | |
| F | Ford Motor | (0.10) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.84 | (3.91) | 22.50 |
Li Auto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Li Auto price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Li Auto using various technical indicators. When you analyze Li Auto charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Li Auto Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Li Auto stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Li Auto, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Li Auto based on analysis of Li Auto hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Li Auto's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Li Auto's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 3.0 | 1.82 | 2.77 | 1.69 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 27.79 | 68.05 | 26.03 | 24.73 |
Story Coverage note for Li Auto
The number of cover stories for Li Auto depends on current market conditions and Li Auto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Li Auto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Li Auto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Li Auto Short Properties
Li Auto's future price predictability will typically decrease when Li Auto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Li Auto often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Li Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Li Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 103.3 B |
Complementary Tools for Li Auto Stock analysis
When running Li Auto's price analysis, check to measure Li Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Li Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Li Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Li Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Li Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Li Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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