Cargurus Stock Price Prediction
| CARG Stock | USD 35.64 0.25 0.70% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.265 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.46 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.7016 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.8808 | Wall Street Target Price 37.3462 |
Using CarGurus hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CarGurus from the perspective of CarGurus response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
CarGurus Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CarGurus' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CarGurus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CarGurus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CarGurus. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CarGurus' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CarGurus.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in CarGurus to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying CarGurus because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
CarGurus after-hype prediction price | USD 35.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CarGurus |
CarGurus After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CarGurus at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CarGurus or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CarGurus, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CarGurus Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CarGurus' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CarGurus' historical news coverage. CarGurus' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.97 and 37.63, respectively. We have considered CarGurus' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CarGurus is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CarGurus is based on 3 months time horizon.
CarGurus Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CarGurus is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CarGurus backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CarGurus, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.38 | 1.83 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
35.64 | 35.80 | 0.45 |
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CarGurus Hype Timeline
CarGurus is currently traded for 35.64. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. CarGurus is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 35.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.45%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.38%. The volatility of related hype on CarGurus is about 1807.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.60. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 914.24 M. Net Income was 22.05 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 657.72 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out CarGurus Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.CarGurus Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CarGurus' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CarGurus' future price movements. Getting to know how CarGurus' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CarGurus may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASUR | Asure Software | 0.01 | 9 per month | 3.02 | 0 | 4.94 | (3.76) | 19.48 | |
| NCTY | The9 Ltd ADR | (0.23) | 4 per month | 2.20 | 0.15 | 7.11 | (4.43) | 22.07 | |
| RDCM | Radcom | (0.45) | 6 per month | 3.08 | 0.07 | 5.40 | (5.38) | 19.90 | |
| NXPL | Nextplat Corp | (0.1) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.88 | (7.80) | 41.77 | |
| CSIOY | Casio Computer Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.72 | (5.00) | 12.94 | |
| WNW | Meiwu Technology Co | 0.02 | 1 per month | 2.89 | 0.03 | 6.25 | (5.81) | 29.28 | |
| WDC | Western Digital | (0.06) | 11 per month | 1.88 | (0.05) | 4.06 | (2.94) | 11.83 | |
| KSMRF | Contagious Gaming | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
CarGurus Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CarGurus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CarGurus using various technical indicators. When you analyze CarGurus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About CarGurus Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of CarGurus stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as CarGurus, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of CarGurus based on analysis of CarGurus hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to CarGurus's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to CarGurus's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 72.64 | 10.32 | 15.95 | 16.32 | PTB Ratio | 7.62 | 2.26 | 4.44 | 4.21 |
Story Coverage note for CarGurus
The number of cover stories for CarGurus depends on current market conditions and CarGurus' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CarGurus is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CarGurus' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CarGurus Short Properties
CarGurus' future price predictability will typically decrease when CarGurus' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CarGurus often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CarGurus' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CarGurus' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 312.1 M |
Complementary Tools for CarGurus Stock analysis
When running CarGurus' price analysis, check to measure CarGurus' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CarGurus is operating at the current time. Most of CarGurus' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CarGurus' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CarGurus' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CarGurus to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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