First Busey Corp Stock Price Prediction
| BUSE Stock | USD 24.74 0.12 0.48% |
Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.055 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6371 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.4643 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.5486 | Wall Street Target Price 27.1429 |
Using First Busey hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Busey Corp from the perspective of First Busey response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Busey using First Busey's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Busey's stock price.
First Busey Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in First Busey's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards First. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of First Busey stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 23.0535 | Short Percent 0.0181 | Short Ratio 3.23 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 23.8386 |
First Busey Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to First Busey's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Busey Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of First Busey's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about First Busey.
First Busey Implied Volatility | 0.76 |
First Busey's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Busey Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Busey's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Busey stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Busey's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Busey to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Busey after-hype prediction price | USD 24.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Busey Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With First Busey trading at USD 24.74, that is roughly USD 0.0118 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Busey's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Busey Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out First Busey Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Busey's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Busey After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Busey at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Busey or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of First Busey, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Busey Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Busey's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Busey's historical news coverage. First Busey's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.32 and 26.12, respectively. We have considered First Busey's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Busey is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Busey Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Busey Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as First Busey is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Busey backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Busey, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.40 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.74 | 24.72 | 0.08 |
|
First Busey Hype Timeline
First Busey Corp is currently traded for 24.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. First is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.72. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on First Busey is about 2279.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.75. About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.87. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Busey Corp last dividend was issued on the 24th of October 2025. The entity had 1:3 split on the 8th of September 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out First Busey Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First Busey Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Busey's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Busey's future price movements. Getting to know how First Busey's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Busey may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FFBC | First Financial Bancorp | (0.49) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.02 | 3.15 | (1.81) | 10.50 | |
| WAFD | Washington Federal | (0.15) | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.09 | 3.19 | (2.17) | 6.44 | |
| HTH | Hilltop Holdings | (0.21) | 12 per month | 1.31 | 0.05 | 2.45 | (1.86) | 8.69 | |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp | 0.95 | 9 per month | 1.76 | 0.1 | 3.30 | (1.99) | 11.90 | |
| PRK | Park National | (1.33) | 9 per month | 1.68 | (0) | 2.61 | (1.81) | 8.53 | |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | 0.86 | 11 per month | 2.45 | 0.05 | 4.04 | (3.36) | 14.94 | |
| TOWN | Towne Bank | 0.80 | 6 per month | 1.28 | 0 | 2.74 | (2.43) | 7.46 |
First Busey Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About First Busey Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Busey stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Busey Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Busey based on analysis of First Busey hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Busey's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Busey's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0386 | 0.0406 | 0.0365 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.29 | 2.01 | 2.32 |
Story Coverage note for First Busey
The number of cover stories for First Busey depends on current market conditions and First Busey's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Busey is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Busey's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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First Busey Short Properties
First Busey's future price predictability will typically decrease when First Busey's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Busey Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Busey's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Busey's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Busey's price analysis, check to measure First Busey's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Busey is operating at the current time. Most of First Busey's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Busey's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Busey's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Busey to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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