Amrep Stock Price Prediction
| AXR Stock | USD 30.54 0.29 0.94% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
53
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.04 | Wall Street Target Price 2.46 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.855 |
Using AMREP hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AMREP from the perspective of AMREP response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AMREP to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AMREP because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
AMREP after-hype prediction price | USD 30.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AMREP |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AMREP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AMREP After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AMREP at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AMREP or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AMREP, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AMREP Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AMREP's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AMREP's historical news coverage. AMREP's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.50 and 34.18, respectively. We have considered AMREP's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AMREP is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AMREP is based on 3 months time horizon.
AMREP Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AMREP is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AMREP backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AMREP, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 3.84 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 5 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.54 | 30.34 | 0.65 |
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AMREP Hype Timeline
On the 27th of December AMREP is traded for 30.54. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. AMREP is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 30.34. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.65%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.12%. The volatility of related hype on AMREP is about 856.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.49. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.33. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AMREP last dividend was issued on the 8th of August 2007. The entity had 3:2 split on the 2nd of December 1986. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out AMREP Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.AMREP Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AMREP's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AMREP's future price movements. Getting to know how AMREP's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AMREP may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INCC | International Consolidated Companies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 33.45 | 0.12 | 100.00 | (65.67) | 200,000 | |
| FRTG | Frontera Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| AAPT | All American Pet | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| XCPL | XCPCNL Business Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ARMK | Aramark Holdings | (1.48) | 11 per month | 1.62 | (0.01) | 2.82 | (3.42) | 7.75 | |
| GPN | Global Payments | (1.21) | 9 per month | 1.66 | 0.06 | 3.43 | (2.71) | 10.39 |
AMREP Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AMREP price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AMREP using various technical indicators. When you analyze AMREP charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About AMREP Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of AMREP stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AMREP, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AMREP based on analysis of AMREP hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AMREP's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AMREP's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0183 | 0.0239 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.09 | 2.2 |
Story Coverage note for AMREP
The number of cover stories for AMREP depends on current market conditions and AMREP's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AMREP is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AMREP's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AMREP Short Properties
AMREP's future price predictability will typically decrease when AMREP's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AMREP often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AMREP's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMREP's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 29.7 M |
Additional Tools for AMREP Stock Analysis
When running AMREP's price analysis, check to measure AMREP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AMREP is operating at the current time. Most of AMREP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AMREP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AMREP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AMREP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.