Agios Pharm Stock Price Prediction
| AGIO Stock | USD 39.65 0.91 2.24% |
Momentum 72
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.85) | EPS Estimate Current Year (7.16) | EPS Estimate Next Year (6.38) | Wall Street Target Price 51.5714 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.76) |
Using Agios Pharm hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Agios Pharm from the perspective of Agios Pharm response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Agios Pharm using Agios Pharm's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Agios using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Agios Pharm's stock price.
Agios Pharm Short Interest
An investor who is long Agios Pharm may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Agios Pharm and may potentially protect profits, hedge Agios Pharm with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 37.0249 | Short Percent 0.0658 | Short Ratio 6.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.3 M | 50 Day MA 34.4336 |
Agios Pharm Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Agios Pharm's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Agios. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Agios can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Agios Pharm. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Agios Pharm's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Agios Pharm.
Agios Pharm Implied Volatility | 1.0 |
Agios Pharm's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Agios Pharm stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Agios Pharm's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Agios Pharm stock will not fluctuate a lot when Agios Pharm's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Agios Pharm to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Agios because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Agios Pharm after-hype prediction price | USD 40.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Agios contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Agios Pharm will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0625% per day over the life of the 2025-10-17 option contract. With Agios Pharm trading at USD 39.65, that is roughly USD 0.0248 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Agios Pharm's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Agios Pharm options at the current volatility level of 1.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Agios Pharm Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Agios Pharm After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Agios Pharm at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agios Pharm or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agios Pharm, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Agios Pharm Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Agios Pharm's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agios Pharm's historical news coverage. Agios Pharm's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.87 and 42.71, respectively. We have considered Agios Pharm's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Agios Pharm is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Agios Pharm is based on 3 months time horizon.
Agios Pharm Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agios Pharm is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agios Pharm backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agios Pharm, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.51 | 2.44 | 0.64 | 0.05 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
39.65 | 40.29 | 1.61 |
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Agios Pharm Hype Timeline
Agios Pharm is presently traded for 39.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.64, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Agios is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 40.29 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 193.65%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.61%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.51%. The volatility of related hype on Agios Pharm is about 2535.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 39.60. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 36.5 M. Net Income was 673.73 M with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (273 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Agios Pharm Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Agios Pharm Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Agios Pharm's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agios Pharm's future price movements. Getting to know how Agios Pharm's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agios Pharm may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RARE | Ultragenyx | (2.14) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.94 | (5.19) | 33.92 | |
| CRNX | Crinetics Pharmaceuticals | (0.01) | 9 per month | 3.05 | (0.06) | 4.17 | (5.78) | 15.86 | |
| ARVN | Arvinas | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.59 | (5.87) | 27.51 | |
| RVMD | Revolution Medicines | 1.66 | 10 per month | 2.53 | (0.06) | 3.61 | (4.27) | 18.30 | |
| KURA | Kura Oncology | 0.14 | 9 per month | 4.11 | (0.03) | 5.73 | (4.47) | 17.70 | |
| PTCT | PTC Therapeutics | (0.47) | 9 per month | 4.30 | (0.05) | 4.05 | (3.08) | 22.27 | |
| BPMC | Blueprint Medicines Corp | 0.03 | 7 per month | 0.61 | 0.14 | 5.43 | (1.91) | 26.28 | |
| PBYI | Puma Biotechnology | (0.02) | 8 per month | 2.67 | 0.02 | 5.60 | (5.21) | 20.82 |
Agios Pharm Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Agios price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agios using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agios charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Agios Pharm Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Agios Pharm stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Agios Pharm, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Agios Pharm based on analysis of Agios Pharm hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Agios Pharm's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Agios Pharm's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 38.24 | 41.09 | 35.79 | PTB Ratio | 1.53 | 1.21 | 1.15 |
Story Coverage note for Agios Pharm
The number of cover stories for Agios Pharm depends on current market conditions and Agios Pharm's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agios Pharm is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agios Pharm's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Agios Pharm Short Properties
Agios Pharm's future price predictability will typically decrease when Agios Pharm's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Agios Pharm often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agios Pharm's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agios Pharm's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 893.7 M |
Check out Agios Pharm Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Agios Stock, please use our How to Invest in Agios Pharm guide.You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agios Pharm. If investors know Agios will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agios Pharm listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 11.54 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.066 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Agios Pharm is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agios that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agios Pharm's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agios Pharm's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agios Pharm's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agios Pharm's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agios Pharm's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agios Pharm is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agios Pharm's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.