Orange County Bancorp Stock Market Value
| OBT Stock | USD 57.04 1.46 2.50% |
| Symbol | Orange |
Orange County Bancorp Price To Book Ratio
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Orange County. If investors know Orange will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Orange County listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.1) | Dividend Share 0.92 | Earnings Share 6.15 | Revenue Per Share 18.272 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.002 |
The market value of Orange County Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Orange that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Orange County's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Orange County's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Orange County's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Orange County's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Orange County's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Orange County is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Orange County's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Orange County 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Orange County's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Orange County.
| 08/26/2024 |
| 09/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Orange County on August 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Orange County Bancorp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Orange County over 30 days. Orange County is related to or competes with Southern States, US Century, Third Coast, Esquire Financial, and Five Star. Orange County Bancorp, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides commercial and consumer banking products and services, a... More
Orange County Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Orange County's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Orange County Bancorp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0716 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.31 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.58 |
Orange County Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Orange County's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Orange County's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Orange County historical prices to predict the future Orange County's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0889 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1732 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0771 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1896 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Orange County's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Orange County Bancorp Backtested Returns
Orange County appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Orange County Bancorp maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0749, which implies the firm had a 0.0749% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Orange County Bancorp, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate Orange County's Coefficient Of Variation of 996.13, semi deviation of 3.5, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0889 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Orange County holds a performance score of 5. The company holds a Beta of 2.1, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Orange County will likely underperform. Please check Orange County's standard deviation, expected short fall, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Orange County's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.53 |
Good reverse predictability
Orange County Bancorp has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Orange County time series from 26th of August 2024 to 10th of September 2024 and 10th of September 2024 to 25th of September 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Orange County Bancorp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current Orange County price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.6 |
Orange County Bancorp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Orange County stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Orange County's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Orange County returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Orange County has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Orange County regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Orange County stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Orange County stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Orange County stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Orange County Lagged Returns
When evaluating Orange County's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Orange County stock have on its future price. Orange County autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Orange County autocorrelation shows the relationship between Orange County stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Orange County Bancorp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Additional Tools for Orange Stock Analysis
When running Orange County's price analysis, check to measure Orange County's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orange County is operating at the current time. Most of Orange County's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orange County's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orange County's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orange County to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.