Aspen Insurance Holdings Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| AHL Stock | USD 37.05 0.01 0.03% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Aspen Insurance Holdings is 'Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Aspen Insurance's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Check out Aspen Insurance Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. Note, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Aspen and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' constraints. Aspen Insurance Holdings. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate.
Execute Aspen Insurance Buy or Sell Advice
The Aspen recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Aspen Insurance Holdings. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Aspen Insurance Holdings or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Aspen Insurance's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Fair | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Tiny | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Moves indifferently to market moves | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Not Available | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Aspen Insurance Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Aspen Insurance Holdings has 375.6 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 15.9, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Aspen Insurance Holdings has a current ratio of 0.71, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Note however, debt could still be an excellent tool for Aspen to invest in growth at high rates of return. | |
| Over 85.0% of Aspen Insurance shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Diamond Equity Research Releases Update Note on Almonty Industries, Inc. |
Aspen Insurance Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Aspen Insurance's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Aspen Insurance's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Aspen Insurance daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Aspen Insurance Holdings price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Aspen Insurance returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Aspen Insurance.
| Mean Return | 0.01 | Value At Risk | -0.22 | Potential Upside | 0.24 | Standard Deviation | 0.17 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Aspen Insurance historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Aspen Insurance Cash Flow Accounts
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 716.8M | (433.2M) | (354.9M) | 68.9M | (113.9M) | (108.2M) | |
| Free Cash Flow | (713.4M) | 460.2M | (55M) | 315.8M | 537.4M | 288.2M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | (89.3M) | (16.6M) | 193.1M | (11.4M) | 64.4M | 49.2M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 40.7M | 64.5M | 0.0 | 8.9M | 17.5M | 21.0M | |
| Net Income | (40.1M) | 29.8M | 51.1M | 534.7M | 486.1M | 510.4M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 1.7B | 1.3B | 959.2M | 1.0B | 914.2M | 1.0B | |
| Depreciation | 57.6M | 65.3M | 53.4M | 21.7M | 8.9M | 8.5M |
Aspen Insurance Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aspen Insurance or Insurance - Property & Casualty sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aspen Insurance's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aspen stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.32 |
Aspen Insurance Volatility Alert
Aspen Insurance Holdings exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.57 and kurtosis of 4.13. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Aspen Insurance's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Aspen Insurance's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Aspen Insurance Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Aspen Insurance's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Aspen Insurance's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Aspen Insurance and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Aspen Insurance or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Aspen Insurance's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Aspen Insurance to competition |
| Fundamentals | Aspen Insurance | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.13 | -0.31 |
| Profit Margin | 0.13 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.09 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 3.04 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 91.84 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.95 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 84.80 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 450.55 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Book | 1.11 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.88 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 3.2 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 983.4 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 535.1 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 486.1 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 2.42 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 40.55 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 375.6 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 15.90 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.72 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 27.42 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 554.9 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 2.48 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 6.28 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.95 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 40.63 | |
| Number Of Employees | 1.13 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | -0.14 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 2.81 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 15.75 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 2.03 B | 9.33 B |
| Five Year Return | 1.89 % | |
| Net Asset | 15.75 B | |
| Last Dividend Paid | 0.96 |
Note: Disposition of 1234 shares by Dawe Grahame of Aspen Insurance subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Aspen Insurance Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Aspen . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Aspen Insurance Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Aspen Insurance Holdings? Buying financial instruments such as Aspen Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
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Check out Aspen Insurance Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Insurance - Property & Casualty space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Insurance. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.80) | Earnings Share 6.28 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.05 | Return On Equity |
The market value of Aspen Insurance Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.