Sera Prognostics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.99
| SERA Stock | USD 6.97 0.27 3.73% |
Closest to current price Sera long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Sera |
Sera Prognostics Target Price Odds to finish below 1.99
The tendency of Sera Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.99 or more in 90 days |
| 6.97 | 90 days | 1.99 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sera Prognostics to drop to $ 1.99 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Sera Prognostics probability density function shows the probability of Sera Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sera Prognostics price to stay between $ 1.99 and its current price of $6.97 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.58 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Sera Prognostics will likely underperform. Additionally Sera Prognostics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Sera Prognostics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sera Prognostics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sera Prognostics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sera Prognostics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sera Prognostics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sera Prognostics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sera Prognostics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sera Prognostics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.58 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.41 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Sera Prognostics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sera Prognostics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sera Prognostics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sera Prognostics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 306 K. Net Loss for the year was (36.24 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 75 K. | |
| Sera Prognostics currently holds about 106.91 M in cash with (27.19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.45. | |
| Roughly 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Sera Prognostics director sells 695 in stock |
Sera Prognostics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sera Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sera Prognostics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sera Prognostics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.1 M |
Sera Prognostics Technical Analysis
Sera Prognostics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sera Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sera Prognostics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sera Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sera Prognostics Predictive Forecast Models
Sera Prognostics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Sera Prognostics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sera Prognostics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sera Prognostics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sera Prognostics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sera Prognostics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sera Prognostics had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 306 K. Net Loss for the year was (36.24 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 75 K. | |
| Sera Prognostics currently holds about 106.91 M in cash with (27.19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.45. | |
| Roughly 70.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Sera Prognostics director sells 695 in stock |
Check out Sera Prognostics Backtesting, Sera Prognostics Valuation, Sera Prognostics Correlation, Sera Prognostics Hype Analysis, Sera Prognostics Volatility, Sera Prognostics History as well as Sera Prognostics Performance. For information on how to trade Sera Stock refer to our How to Trade Sera Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sera Prognostics. If investors know Sera will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sera Prognostics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.99) | Revenue Per Share 0.003 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.31) | Return On Assets (0.27) | Return On Equity (0.50) |
The market value of Sera Prognostics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sera that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sera Prognostics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sera Prognostics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sera Prognostics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sera Prognostics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sera Prognostics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sera Prognostics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sera Prognostics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.