UPDATE SOFTWARE Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| UP2 Stock | 17.23 0.00 0.00% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UPDATE SOFTWARE on the next trading day is expected to be 17.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.36. UPDATE Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast UPDATE SOFTWARE stock prices and determine the direction of UPDATE SOFTWARE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UPDATE SOFTWARE's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of UPDATE SOFTWARE's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using UPDATE SOFTWARE hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UPDATE SOFTWARE from the perspective of UPDATE SOFTWARE response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UPDATE SOFTWARE on the next trading day is expected to be 17.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.36. UPDATE SOFTWARE after-hype prediction price | EUR 17.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
UPDATE |
UPDATE SOFTWARE Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UPDATE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UPDATE using various technical indicators. When you analyze UPDATE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UPDATE SOFTWARE Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UPDATE SOFTWARE on the next trading day is expected to be 17.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UPDATE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UPDATE SOFTWARE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UPDATE SOFTWARE Stock Forecast Pattern
UPDATE SOFTWARE Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UPDATE SOFTWARE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UPDATE SOFTWARE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.96 and 20.52, respectively. We have considered UPDATE SOFTWARE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UPDATE SOFTWARE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UPDATE SOFTWARE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0513 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3621 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0224 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.361 |
Predictive Modules for UPDATE SOFTWARE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UPDATE SOFTWARE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UPDATE SOFTWARE Estimiated After-Hype Price Prediction Volatility
As far as predicting the price of UPDATE SOFTWARE at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UPDATE SOFTWARE or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UPDATE SOFTWARE, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UPDATE SOFTWARE Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UPDATE SOFTWARE is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UPDATE SOFTWARE backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UPDATE SOFTWARE, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 3.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.23 | 17.23 | 0.00 |
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UPDATE SOFTWARE Hype Timeline
UPDATE SOFTWARE is at this time traded for 17.23on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. UPDATE is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.4%. %. The volatility of related hype on UPDATE SOFTWARE is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.23. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out fundamental analysis of UPDATE SOFTWARE to check your projections.UPDATE SOFTWARE Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UPDATE SOFTWARE's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UPDATE SOFTWARE's future price movements. Getting to know how UPDATE SOFTWARE's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UPDATE SOFTWARE may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | (0.05) | 1.70 | (2.31) | 9.13 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | (0.06) | 1.74 | (2.46) | 10.11 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | (0.07) | 1.42 | (1.76) | 8.50 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | (0.05) | 2.08 | (1.75) | 10.40 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.02 | 1.80 | (1.91) | 9.21 | |
| APC | Apple Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.32 | (0.05) | 2.00 | (2.09) | 9.59 | |
| MSF | Microsoft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.02 | (2.68) | 5.65 | |
| MSF | Microsoft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.26 | (2.91) | 6.19 | |
| MSF | Microsoft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.06 | (2.56) | 5.57 | |
| MSF | Microsoft | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.66 | (3.32) | 6.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for UPDATE SOFTWARE
For every potential investor in UPDATE, whether a beginner or expert, UPDATE SOFTWARE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UPDATE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UPDATE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UPDATE SOFTWARE's price trends.UPDATE SOFTWARE Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UPDATE SOFTWARE stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UPDATE SOFTWARE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UPDATE SOFTWARE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UPDATE SOFTWARE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UPDATE SOFTWARE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UPDATE SOFTWARE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UPDATE SOFTWARE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UPDATE SOFTWARE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
UPDATE SOFTWARE Risk Indicators
The analysis of UPDATE SOFTWARE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UPDATE SOFTWARE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting update stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Variance | 10.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for UPDATE SOFTWARE
The number of cover stories for UPDATE SOFTWARE depends on current market conditions and UPDATE SOFTWARE's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UPDATE SOFTWARE is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UPDATE SOFTWARE's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in UPDATE Stock
UPDATE SOFTWARE financial ratios help investors to determine whether UPDATE Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UPDATE with respect to the benefits of owning UPDATE SOFTWARE security.