UMB Financial Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| UMBF Stock | USD 107.70 0.35 0.32% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 112.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.54. UMB Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UMB Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The UMB Financial's current Receivables Turnover is estimated to increase to 7.59. The UMB Financial's current Fixed Asset Turnover is estimated to increase to 13.53. The UMB Financial's current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to increase to about 50.2 M. The UMB Financial's current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 521.3 M. Open Interest Against 2025-09-19 UMB Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast UMB Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in UMB Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for UMB Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current UMB Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to UMB Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of UMB Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UMB. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
UMB Financial Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of July
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 112.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.32, mean absolute percentage error of 7.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 141.54.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UMB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UMB Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UMB Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest UMB Financial | UMB Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
UMB Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UMB Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UMB Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 110.35 and 113.81, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UMB Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UMB Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.1646 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.3203 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0222 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 141.5387 |
Predictive Modules for UMB Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMB Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for UMB Financial
For every potential investor in UMB, whether a beginner or expert, UMB Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UMB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UMB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UMB Financial's price trends.UMB Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UMB Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UMB Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UMB Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UMB Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UMB Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UMB Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UMB Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UMB Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UMB Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UMB Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UMB Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
UMB Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of UMB Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UMB Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting umb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Variance | 3.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
| USOI | Credit Suisse X Links | |
| ULTY | Tidal Trust II | |
| CONY | YieldMax N Option | |
| BCAT | BlackRock Capital Allocation | |
| PDI | Pimco Dynamic Income |
Other Information on Investing in UMB Stock
UMB Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether UMB Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UMB with respect to the benefits of owning UMB Financial security.