Ulta Beauty Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ULTA Stock | USD 385.26 8.00 2.03% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 385.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 312.32. Ulta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ulta Beauty stock prices and determine the direction of Ulta Beauty's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ulta Beauty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Ulta |
Ulta Beauty Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ulta Beauty on the next trading day is expected to be 385.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.12, mean absolute percentage error of 42.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 312.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ulta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ulta Beauty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ulta Beauty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ulta Beauty | Ulta Beauty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ulta Beauty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ulta Beauty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ulta Beauty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 383.03 and 387.49, respectively. We have considered Ulta Beauty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ulta Beauty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ulta Beauty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.857 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.319 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.12 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 312.32 |
Predictive Modules for Ulta Beauty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ulta Beauty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ulta Beauty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ulta Beauty
For every potential investor in Ulta, whether a beginner or expert, Ulta Beauty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ulta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ulta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ulta Beauty's price trends.Ulta Beauty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ulta Beauty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ulta Beauty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ulta Beauty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ulta Beauty Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ulta Beauty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ulta Beauty's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ulta Beauty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ulta Beauty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ulta Beauty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ulta Beauty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ulta Beauty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 16489.6 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.84) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 389.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 388.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (8.46) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (8.00) |
Ulta Beauty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ulta Beauty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ulta Beauty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ulta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Variance | 4.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Ulta Beauty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ulta Beauty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ulta Beauty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ulta Beauty Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ulta Beauty to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Is Other Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ulta Beauty. If investors know Ulta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ulta Beauty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.12) | Earnings Share 24.39 | Revenue Per Share 234.543 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 | Return On Assets 0.1791 |
The market value of Ulta Beauty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ulta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ulta Beauty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ulta Beauty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ulta Beauty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ulta Beauty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ulta Beauty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ulta Beauty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ulta Beauty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.