SIGA Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SIGA Stock | USD 6.27 0.02 0.32% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SIGA Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 5.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.50. SIGA Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SIGA Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of SIGA Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SIGA Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
SIGA |
SIGA Technologies Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the SIGA Technologies' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1997-09-30 | Previous Quarter 106.9 M | Current Value 99.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 46.5 M |
SIGA Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SIGA Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 5.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SIGA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SIGA Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SIGA Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
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SIGA Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SIGA Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SIGA Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.30 and 9.11, respectively. We have considered SIGA Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SIGA Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SIGA Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1049 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3145 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0431 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.4962 |
Predictive Modules for SIGA Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SIGA Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for SIGA Technologies
For every potential investor in SIGA, whether a beginner or expert, SIGA Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SIGA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SIGA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SIGA Technologies' price trends.View SIGA Technologies Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SIGA Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SIGA Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SIGA Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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SIGA Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SIGA Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SIGA Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SIGA Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify SIGA Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
SIGA Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of SIGA Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SIGA Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting siga stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Variance | 16.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether SIGA Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of SIGA Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Siga Technologies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Siga Technologies Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SIGA Technologies to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade SIGA Stock refer to our How to Trade SIGA Stock guide.You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SIGA Technologies. If investors know SIGA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SIGA Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.721 | Earnings Share 1.17 | Revenue Per Share 2.441 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.084 | Return On Assets 0.3695 |
The market value of SIGA Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SIGA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SIGA Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SIGA Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SIGA Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SIGA Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SIGA Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SIGA Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SIGA Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.