P3 Health Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| PIII Stock | USD 0.48 0.04 9.09% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of P3 Health Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 0.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.40. PIII Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of P3 Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
PIII |
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 40.9 M | Current Value 42.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 28.2 M |
P3 Health Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of October
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of P3 Health Partners on the next trading day is expected to be 0.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PIII Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that P3 Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
P3 Health Stock Forecast Pattern
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P3 Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting P3 Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. P3 Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.81, respectively. We have considered P3 Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of P3 Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent P3 Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8572 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0226 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0495 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.4003 |
Predictive Modules for P3 Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as P3 Health Partners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of P3 Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for P3 Health
For every potential investor in PIII, whether a beginner or expert, P3 Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PIII Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PIII. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying P3 Health's price trends.View P3 Health Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
P3 Health Partners Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of P3 Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of P3 Health's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
P3 Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how P3 Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading P3 Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying P3 Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify P3 Health Partners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 70295.02 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.09 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.47 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.04 |
P3 Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of P3 Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in P3 Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting piii stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.11 | |||
| Variance | 37.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of P3 Health to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of P3 Health. If investors know PIII will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about P3 Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.64) | Revenue Per Share 11.552 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.152 | Return On Assets (0.12) | Return On Equity (0.41) |
The market value of P3 Health Partners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of PIII that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of P3 Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is P3 Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because P3 Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect P3 Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between P3 Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if P3 Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, P3 Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.