National Graphite Pink Sheet Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| NGRC Stock | USD 0.05 0.03 118.18% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of National Graphite Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.24. National Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Graphite stock prices and determine the direction of National Graphite Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Graphite's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of National Graphite's pink sheet price is about 65. This indicates that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using National Graphite hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Graphite Corp from the perspective of National Graphite response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of National Graphite Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.24. National Graphite after-hype prediction price | USD 0.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
National |
National Graphite Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Graphite 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of National Graphite Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000084, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Graphite's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Graphite Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Graphite | National Graphite Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
National Graphite Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Graphite's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Graphite's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0005 and 21.60, respectively. We have considered National Graphite's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Graphite pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Graphite pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 71.973 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0041 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0058 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1758 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.2367 |
Predictive Modules for National Graphite
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Graphite Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Graphite After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Graphite at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Graphite or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of National Graphite, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Graphite Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Graphite's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Graphite's historical news coverage. National Graphite's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 21.45, respectively. We have considered National Graphite's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Graphite is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Graphite Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Graphite Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Graphite is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Graphite backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Graphite, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
3.12 | 21.57 | 0.06 | 1.98 | 22 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 22 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.05 | 0.05 | 4.17 |
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National Graphite Hype Timeline
National Graphite Corp is now traded for 0.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.98. National is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is estimated to be 4.17%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 3.12%. The volatility of related hype on National Graphite is about 3402.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.03. National Graphite Corp currently holds about 24.17 K in cash with (2.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 22 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Graphite to cross-verify your projections.National Graphite Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Graphite's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Graphite's future price movements. Getting to know how National Graphite's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Graphite may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRT | Marti Technologies | (0.01) | 8 per month | 2.43 | (0.03) | 7.59 | (4.02) | 20.77 | |
| TIMB | TIM Participacoes SA | (0.03) | 9 per month | 1.90 | 0.03 | 3.06 | (2.72) | 8.26 | |
| CCCC | C4 Therapeutics | 0.36 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.16 | (7.32) | 24.93 | |
| HOLO | MicroCloud Hologram | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.57 | (8.22) | 15.30 | |
| IMMR | Immersion | 0.13 | 12 per month | 2.19 | (0.03) | 4.57 | (3.90) | 22.47 | |
| ABSOF | ABS CBN Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 40.00 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.79 | 0.12 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| LLYVK | Liberty Live Holdings | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.12 | (2.93) | 10.93 | |
| LSIIX | Loomis Sayles Investment | 6.10 | 5 per month | 0.16 | (0.59) | 0.20 | (0.30) | 0.61 | |
| HPQ | HP Inc | (0.14) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 2.73 | (3.97) | 10.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Graphite
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Graphite's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Graphite's price trends.National Graphite Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Graphite pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Graphite could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Graphite by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Graphite Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Graphite pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Graphite shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Graphite pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify National Graphite Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 2.18 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.048 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.048 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.013 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.026 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 65.42 |
National Graphite Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Graphite's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Graphite's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 9.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 9.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 21.13 | |||
| Variance | 446.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 683.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 95.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (37.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Graphite
The number of cover stories for National Graphite depends on current market conditions and National Graphite's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Graphite is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Graphite's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in National Pink Sheet
National Graphite financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Graphite security.