Nexa Resources Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NEXA Stock | USD 14.05 0.41 2.84% |
Nexa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Nexa Resources stock prices and determine the direction of Nexa Resources SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Nexa Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Nexa Resources' share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Nexa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 76
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.115 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.96 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.4333 | Wall Street Target Price 7.4 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.1733 |
Using Nexa Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nexa Resources SA from the perspective of Nexa Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Nexa Resources using Nexa Resources' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Nexa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Nexa Resources' stock price.
Nexa Resources Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Nexa Resources' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Nexa. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Nexa Resources stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 6.0445 | Short Percent 0.0036 | Short Ratio 0.27 | Shares Short Prior Month 155.6 K | 50 Day MA 8.6662 |
Nexa Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nexa Resources SA on the next trading day is expected to be 14.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.28.Nexa Resources SA Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Nexa Resources' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Nexa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Nexa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Nexa Resources SA. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Nexa Resources' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Nexa Resources.
Nexa Resources Implied Volatility | 1.4 |
Nexa Resources' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Nexa Resources SA stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Nexa Resources' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Nexa Resources stock will not fluctuate a lot when Nexa Resources' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nexa Resources SA on the next trading day is expected to be 14.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.28. Nexa Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 14.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexa Resources to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Nexa contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Nexa Resources SA will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0875% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Nexa Resources trading at USD 14.05, that is roughly USD 0.0123 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Nexa Resources' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Nexa Resources SA options at the current volatility level of 1.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Nexa Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Nexa Resources' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Nexa Resources' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Nexa Resources stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Nexa Resources' open interest, investors have to compare it to Nexa Resources' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Nexa Resources is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Nexa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Nexa Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Nexa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nexa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nexa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nexa Resources Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Nexa Resources' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2015-12-31 | Previous Quarter 412.3 M | Current Value 464.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 335.7 M |
Nexa Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nexa Resources SA on the next trading day is expected to be 14.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nexa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nexa Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nexa Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Nexa Resources | Nexa Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Nexa Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nexa Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nexa Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.05 and 18.82, respectively. We have considered Nexa Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nexa Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nexa Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5888 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2465 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0296 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.2821 |
Predictive Modules for Nexa Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nexa Resources SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nexa Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nexa Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Nexa Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nexa Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nexa Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Nexa Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Nexa Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nexa Resources' historical news coverage. Nexa Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.13 and 17.91, respectively. We have considered Nexa Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Nexa Resources is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nexa Resources SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Nexa Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nexa Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nexa Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nexa Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.66 | 3.89 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 2 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.05 | 14.02 | 0.21 |
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Nexa Resources Hype Timeline
Nexa Resources SA is now traded for 14.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Nexa is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.02. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.66%. The volatility of related hype on Nexa Resources is about 97250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.04. About 66.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.96. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Nexa Resources SA recorded a loss per share of 0.13. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of June 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexa Resources to cross-verify your projections.Nexa Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Nexa Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nexa Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Nexa Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nexa Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SLI | Standard Lithium | 0.05 | 8 per month | 4.23 | 0.1 | 6.94 | (6.90) | 18.04 | |
| CMP | Compass Minerals International | (0.02) | 2 per month | 3.21 | 0.15 | 4.98 | (3.43) | 19.48 | |
| LAR | Lithium Argentina AG | 0.42 | 7 per month | 3.23 | 0.24 | 9.27 | (7.06) | 22.80 | |
| TMQ | Trilogy Metals | (0.07) | 11 per month | 4.60 | 0.06 | 7.81 | (7.19) | 32.56 | |
| MTUS | Metallus | (0.07) | 11 per month | 2.21 | 0.03 | 3.76 | (4.06) | 11.02 | |
| GTI | GTI | (0.78) | 23 per month | 14.30 | 0.03 | 19.74 | (10.95) | 128.11 | |
| SGML | Sigma Lithium Resources | (0.07) | 13 per month | 6.83 | 0.17 | 15.91 | (13.89) | 48.40 | |
| TMC | TMC the metals | 0.46 | 7 per month | 5.89 | 0.02 | 13.46 | (9.91) | 30.88 | |
| GSM | Ferroglobe PLC | (0.22) | 8 per month | 3.28 | (0.01) | 5.66 | (5.47) | 19.69 | |
| IAUX | i 80 Gold Corp | 0.26 | 6 per month | 2.89 | 0.27 | 5.62 | (4.12) | 14.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Nexa Resources
For every potential investor in Nexa, whether a beginner or expert, Nexa Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nexa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nexa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nexa Resources' price trends.Nexa Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nexa Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nexa Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nexa Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nexa Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nexa Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nexa Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nexa Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nexa Resources SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 46699.06 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.09 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.08 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.24) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.41) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 76.58 |
Nexa Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nexa Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nexa Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nexa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.79 | |||
| Variance | 14.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.59 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Nexa Resources
The number of cover stories for Nexa Resources depends on current market conditions and Nexa Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nexa Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nexa Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Nexa Resources Short Properties
Nexa Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Nexa Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nexa Resources SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nexa Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nexa Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 132.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 640.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nexa Resources to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Nexa Resources. If investors know Nexa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Nexa Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.13) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.076 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Nexa Resources SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Nexa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Nexa Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Nexa Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Nexa Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Nexa Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Nexa Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nexa Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nexa Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.