Mercer International Stock Forward View
| MERC Stock | USD 2.03 0.08 3.79% |
Mercer Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mercer International stock prices and determine the direction of Mercer International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mercer International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Mercer International's share price is approaching 44. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mercer International, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.73) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.76) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.71) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.54) | Wall Street Target Price 2 |
Using Mercer International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mercer International from the perspective of Mercer International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mercer International using Mercer International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mercer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mercer International's stock price.
Mercer International Implied Volatility | 2.29 |
Mercer International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mercer International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mercer International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mercer International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mercer International's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mercer International on the next trading day is expected to be 1.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.45. Mercer International after-hype prediction price | USD 2.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercer International to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Mercer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Mercer International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.14% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Mercer International trading at USD 2.03, that is roughly USD 0.002905 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Mercer International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Mercer International options at the current volatility level of 2.29%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Mercer Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Mercer International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Mercer International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Mercer International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Mercer International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Mercer International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Mercer International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Mercer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Mercer International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mercer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mercer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mercer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mercer International Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Mercer International's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-12-31 | Previous Quarter 146.5 M | Current Value 98.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 111 M |
Mercer International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mercer International on the next trading day is expected to be 1.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mercer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mercer International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mercer International Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mercer International | Mercer International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mercer International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mercer International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mercer International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.98, respectively. We have considered Mercer International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mercer International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mercer International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4996 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0878 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0434 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.4457 |
Predictive Modules for Mercer International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercer International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mercer International After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mercer International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mercer International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mercer International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mercer International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mercer International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mercer International's historical news coverage. Mercer International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 6.44, respectively. We have considered Mercer International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mercer International is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mercer International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mercer International Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mercer International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mercer International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mercer International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 4.39 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.03 | 2.05 | 0.99 |
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Mercer International Hype Timeline
Mercer International is now traded for 2.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Mercer is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 2.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.99%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Mercer International is about 9340.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.02. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.04 B. Net Loss for the year was (85.14 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 211.82 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercer International to cross-verify your projections.Mercer International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mercer International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mercer International's future price movements. Getting to know how Mercer International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mercer International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AVD | American Vanguard | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.95 | (6.33) | 13.30 | |
| AEC | Anfield Energy | (0.08) | 6 per month | 4.98 | 0.06 | 11.26 | (8.72) | 26.21 | |
| LVRO | Lavoro Limited Class | (0.01) | 6 per month | 6.24 | 0.03 | 12.33 | (13.33) | 160.48 | |
| BIOX | Bioceres Crop Solutions | (0.09) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 8.70 | (8.56) | 26.94 | |
| USGO | US GoldMining Common | (0.35) | 7 per month | 3.59 | 0.04 | 9.48 | (6.74) | 19.03 | |
| FEAM | 5E Advanced Materials | 0.33 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 8.39 | (9.81) | 42.14 | |
| FURY | Fury Gold Mines | 0.01 | 9 per month | 3.73 | 0.11 | 9.72 | (6.35) | 27.18 | |
| GRO | Brazil Potash Corp | (0.10) | 9 per month | 4.06 | 0.04 | 6.53 | (6.56) | 16.70 | |
| ACNT | Synalloy | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.95 | 0.18 | 4.58 | (2.17) | 10.64 | |
| NVA | Nova Minerals Limited | (0.1) | 7 per month | 11.37 | 0.0009 | 11.97 | (17.69) | 47.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mercer International
For every potential investor in Mercer, whether a beginner or expert, Mercer International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mercer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mercer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mercer International's price trends.Mercer International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mercer International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mercer International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mercer International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mercer International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mercer International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mercer International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mercer International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mercer International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mercer International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mercer International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mercer International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mercer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.68 | |||
| Variance | 21.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mercer International
The number of cover stories for Mercer International depends on current market conditions and Mercer International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mercer International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mercer International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mercer International Short Properties
Mercer International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mercer International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mercer International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mercer International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercer International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 184.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mercer International to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Mercer Stock refer to our How to Trade Mercer Stock guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Will Paper & Forest Products sector continue expanding? Could Mercer diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mercer International. Expected growth trajectory for Mercer significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Mercer International data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.73) | Dividend Share 0.225 | Earnings Share (2.57) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.09) |
Understanding Mercer International requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Mercer's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Mercer International's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Mercer International's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Mercer International's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Mercer International represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Mercer International's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.