Kearny Financial Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| KRNY Stock | USD 7.01 0.05 0.72% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kearny Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.23. Kearny Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Kearny |
Open Interest Against 2024-10-18 Kearny Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kearny Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kearny Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kearny Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kearny Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kearny Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kearny Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kearny. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kearny Financial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of September
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kearny Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 7.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kearny Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kearny Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kearny Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Kearny Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kearny Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kearny Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.21 and 9.88, respectively. We have considered Kearny Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kearny Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kearny Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0252 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1539 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.2341 |
Predictive Modules for Kearny Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kearny Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kearny Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Kearny Financial
For every potential investor in Kearny, whether a beginner or expert, Kearny Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kearny Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kearny. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kearny Financial's price trends.View Kearny Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kearny Financial Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kearny Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kearny Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Kearny Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kearny Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kearny Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kearny Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kearny Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Kearny Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kearny Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kearny Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kearny stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Variance | 7.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.98 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.56) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Kearny Stock Analysis
When running Kearny Financial's price analysis, check to measure Kearny Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kearny Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Kearny Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kearny Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kearny Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kearny Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.