Houlihan Lokey Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| HLI Stock | USD 169.39 1.91 1.14% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Houlihan Lokey on the next trading day is expected to be 169.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.44. Houlihan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Houlihan Lokey's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Houlihan |
Houlihan Lokey Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of October 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Houlihan Lokey on the next trading day is expected to be 169.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79, mean absolute percentage error of 4.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 105.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Houlihan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Houlihan Lokey's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Houlihan Lokey Stock Forecast Pattern
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Houlihan Lokey Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Houlihan Lokey's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Houlihan Lokey's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 168.22 and 170.98, respectively. We have considered Houlihan Lokey's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Houlihan Lokey stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Houlihan Lokey stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1966 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7871 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 105.437 |
Predictive Modules for Houlihan Lokey
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Houlihan Lokey. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Houlihan Lokey's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Houlihan Lokey
For every potential investor in Houlihan, whether a beginner or expert, Houlihan Lokey's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Houlihan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Houlihan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Houlihan Lokey's price trends.Houlihan Lokey Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Houlihan Lokey stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Houlihan Lokey could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Houlihan Lokey by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Houlihan Lokey Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Houlihan Lokey's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Houlihan Lokey's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Houlihan Lokey Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Houlihan Lokey stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Houlihan Lokey shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Houlihan Lokey stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Houlihan Lokey entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1630.81 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.043716 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 168.87 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 169.04 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.48 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.91 |
Houlihan Lokey Risk Indicators
The analysis of Houlihan Lokey's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Houlihan Lokey's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting houlihan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.04 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Houlihan Lokey offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Houlihan Lokey's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Houlihan Lokey Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Houlihan Lokey Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Houlihan Lokey to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Houlihan Stock please use our How to Invest in Houlihan Lokey guide.You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Is Investment Banking & Brokerage space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Houlihan Lokey. If investors know Houlihan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Houlihan Lokey listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.444 | Dividend Share 2.22 | Earnings Share 4.51 | Revenue Per Share 31.124 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.235 |
The market value of Houlihan Lokey is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Houlihan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Houlihan Lokey's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Houlihan Lokey's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Houlihan Lokey's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Houlihan Lokey's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Houlihan Lokey's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Houlihan Lokey is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Houlihan Lokey's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.