EMCOR Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| EME Stock | USD 442.09 4.85 1.09% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of EMCOR Group on the next trading day is expected to be 430.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 569.29. EMCOR Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast EMCOR stock prices and determine the direction of EMCOR Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of EMCOR's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
EMCOR |
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 841.6 M | Current Value 808.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 231.5 M |
EMCOR Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of October 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of EMCOR Group on the next trading day is expected to be 430.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.33, mean absolute percentage error of 131.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 569.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EMCOR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EMCOR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
EMCOR Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EMCOR | EMCOR Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
EMCOR Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting EMCOR's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EMCOR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 427.60 and 432.64, respectively. We have considered EMCOR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EMCOR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EMCOR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.99 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.3326 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 569.2885 |
Predictive Modules for EMCOR
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EMCOR Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of EMCOR's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for EMCOR
For every potential investor in EMCOR, whether a beginner or expert, EMCOR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EMCOR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EMCOR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EMCOR's price trends.EMCOR Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EMCOR stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EMCOR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EMCOR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EMCOR Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of EMCOR's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of EMCOR's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
EMCOR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EMCOR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EMCOR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EMCOR stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EMCOR Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3002.85 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.66) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 439.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 440.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (4.85) |
EMCOR Risk Indicators
The analysis of EMCOR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EMCOR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting emcor stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Variance | 6.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.81) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether EMCOR Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze EMCOR's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact EMCOR's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding EMCOR Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of EMCOR to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Construction & Engineering space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of EMCOR. If investors know EMCOR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about EMCOR listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.78 | Dividend Share 0.86 | Earnings Share 17.46 | Revenue Per Share 291.89 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 |
The market value of EMCOR Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of EMCOR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of EMCOR's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is EMCOR's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because EMCOR's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect EMCOR's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between EMCOR's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if EMCOR is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, EMCOR's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.