DRDGOLD Limited Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| DRD Stock | USD 12.28 0.25 2.08% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DRDGOLD Limited ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 12.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.97. DRDGOLD Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DRDGOLD Limited stock prices and determine the direction of DRDGOLD Limited ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of DRDGOLD Limited's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
DRDGOLD |
DRDGOLD Limited Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of October
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DRDGOLD Limited ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 12.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DRDGOLD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DRDGOLD Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
DRDGOLD Limited Stock Forecast Pattern
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DRDGOLD Limited Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting DRDGOLD Limited's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DRDGOLD Limited's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.78 and 15.52, respectively. We have considered DRDGOLD Limited's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DRDGOLD Limited stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DRDGOLD Limited stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0171 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2029 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0218 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.9714 |
Predictive Modules for DRDGOLD Limited
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DRDGOLD Limited ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DRDGOLD Limited's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for DRDGOLD Limited
For every potential investor in DRDGOLD, whether a beginner or expert, DRDGOLD Limited's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DRDGOLD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DRDGOLD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DRDGOLD Limited's price trends.View DRDGOLD Limited Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DRDGOLD Limited ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DRDGOLD Limited's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DRDGOLD Limited's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
DRDGOLD Limited Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DRDGOLD Limited stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DRDGOLD Limited shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DRDGOLD Limited stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DRDGOLD Limited ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
DRDGOLD Limited Risk Indicators
The analysis of DRDGOLD Limited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DRDGOLD Limited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting drdgold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 8.0 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DRDGOLD Limited to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of DRDGOLD Limited. If investors know DRDGOLD will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about DRDGOLD Limited listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 4 | Earnings Share 0.87 | Revenue Per Share 72.45 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.149 |
The market value of DRDGOLD Limited ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of DRDGOLD that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of DRDGOLD Limited's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is DRDGOLD Limited's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because DRDGOLD Limited's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect DRDGOLD Limited's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between DRDGOLD Limited's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if DRDGOLD Limited is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, DRDGOLD Limited's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.