DeFi Development Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DFDV Stock   5.17  0.69  11.77%   
DeFi Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of DeFi Development's share price is approaching 40 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling DeFi Development, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 40

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of DeFi Development's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of DeFi Development and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from DeFi Development's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with DeFi Development Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting DeFi Development's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.30)
Using DeFi Development hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of DeFi Development Corp from the perspective of DeFi Development response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards DeFi Development using DeFi Development's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards DeFi using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of DeFi Development's stock price.

DeFi Development Short Interest

An investor who is long DeFi Development may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about DeFi Development and may potentially protect profits, hedge DeFi Development with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
2.8501
Short Percent
1.4354
Short Ratio
0.09
Shares Short Prior Month
5.1 M
50 Day MA
9.3864

DeFi Relative Strength Index

The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DeFi Development Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 4.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.68.

DeFi Development Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to DeFi Development's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in DeFi. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding DeFi can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around DeFi Development Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of DeFi Development's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about DeFi Development.

DeFi Development Implied Volatility

    
  1.07  
DeFi Development's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of DeFi Development Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if DeFi Development's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that DeFi Development stock will not fluctuate a lot when DeFi Development's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DeFi Development Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 4.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.68.

DeFi Development after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 4.55  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DeFi Development to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current DeFi contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that DeFi Development Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0669% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With DeFi Development trading at USD 5.17, that is roughly USD 0.003457 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating DeFi Development's daily price movement you should consider acquiring DeFi Development Corp options at the current volatility level of 1.07%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 DeFi Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast DeFi Development's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in DeFi Development's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for DeFi Development stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current DeFi Development's open interest, investors have to compare it to DeFi Development's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of DeFi Development is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in DeFi. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

DeFi Development Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine DeFi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DeFi using various technical indicators. When you analyze DeFi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for DeFi Development - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When DeFi Development prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in DeFi Development price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of DeFi Development Corp.

DeFi Development Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of DeFi Development Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 4.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DeFi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DeFi Development's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DeFi Development Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest DeFi Development  DeFi Development Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

DeFi Development Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting DeFi Development's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DeFi Development's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 12.12, respectively. We have considered DeFi Development's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.17
4.96
Expected Value
12.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DeFi Development stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DeFi Development stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0679
MADMean absolute deviation0.4014
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0605
SAESum of the absolute errors23.6803
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past DeFi Development observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older DeFi Development Corp observations.

Predictive Modules for DeFi Development

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DeFi Development Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of DeFi Development's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.234.5511.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.255.0312.19
Details

DeFi Development After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of DeFi Development at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in DeFi Development or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of DeFi Development, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

DeFi Development Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting DeFi Development's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on DeFi Development's historical news coverage. DeFi Development's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 11.71, respectively. We have considered DeFi Development's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.17
4.55
After-hype Price
11.71
Upside
DeFi Development is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of DeFi Development Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

DeFi Development Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as DeFi Development is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading DeFi Development backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with DeFi Development, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.75 
7.16
  0.62 
  0.11 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.17
4.55
11.99 
873.17  
Notes

DeFi Development Hype Timeline

DeFi Development Corp is currently traded for 5.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.62, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. DeFi is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.55. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -11.99%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.75%. The volatility of related hype on DeFi Development is about 4937.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.28. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.26. DeFi Development Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 7:1 split on the 21st of May 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of DeFi Development to cross-verify your projections.

DeFi Development Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to DeFi Development's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict DeFi Development's future price movements. Getting to know how DeFi Development's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how DeFi Development may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ARBEArbe Robotics(0.22)9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 9.71 (8.16) 55.70 
TCXTucows Inc 0.61 9 per month 2.68  0.08  5.31 (4.36) 16.41 
MRTMarti Technologies 0.26 9 per month 0.00 (0.09) 4.98 (4.02) 20.93 
BKKTBakkt Holdings 0.07 9 per month 0.00 (0.08) 12.23 (13.07) 55.99 
WALDWaldencast Acquisition Corp 0.08 10 per month 0.00 (0.04) 9.57 (6.49) 33.33 
IMMRImmersion 0.13 10 per month 2.11 (0.02) 4.57 (3.90) 22.47 
KLTRKaltura(0.11)8 per month 3.90  0  8.16 (6.70) 32.77 
STEMStem Inc 0.45 10 per month 0.00 (0.06) 10.81 (10.06) 30.84 
SATLSatellogic V 0.86 5 per month 5.02  0.20  19.93 (8.22) 39.78 
DUOTDuos Technologies Group(0.68)9 per month 4.12  0.03  7.81 (7.20) 23.66 

Other Forecasting Options for DeFi Development

For every potential investor in DeFi, whether a beginner or expert, DeFi Development's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DeFi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DeFi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DeFi Development's price trends.

DeFi Development Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DeFi Development stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DeFi Development could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DeFi Development by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

DeFi Development Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DeFi Development stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DeFi Development shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DeFi Development stock market strength indicators, traders can identify DeFi Development Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

DeFi Development Risk Indicators

The analysis of DeFi Development's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DeFi Development's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting defi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for DeFi Development

The number of cover stories for DeFi Development depends on current market conditions and DeFi Development's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that DeFi Development is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about DeFi Development's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

DeFi Development Short Properties

DeFi Development's future price predictability will typically decrease when DeFi Development's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of DeFi Development Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential DeFi Development's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. DeFi Development's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding9.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.9 M

Additional Tools for DeFi Stock Analysis

When running DeFi Development's price analysis, check to measure DeFi Development's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DeFi Development is operating at the current time. Most of DeFi Development's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DeFi Development's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DeFi Development's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DeFi Development to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.