Bluebird Bio Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BLUE Stock | USD 0.49 0.01 2.08% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bluebird bio on the next trading day is expected to be 0.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.91. Bluebird Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bluebird Bio stock prices and determine the direction of Bluebird bio's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bluebird Bio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Bluebird |
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 212 M | Current Value 144.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 224.6 M |
Bluebird Bio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of October
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bluebird bio on the next trading day is expected to be 0.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bluebird Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bluebird Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bluebird Bio Stock Forecast Pattern
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Bluebird Bio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bluebird Bio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bluebird Bio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.57, respectively. We have considered Bluebird Bio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bluebird Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bluebird Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.897 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0313 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0457 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.9108 |
Predictive Modules for Bluebird Bio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bluebird bio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bluebird Bio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bluebird Bio
For every potential investor in Bluebird, whether a beginner or expert, Bluebird Bio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bluebird Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bluebird. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bluebird Bio's price trends.View Bluebird Bio Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bluebird bio Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bluebird Bio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bluebird Bio's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Bluebird Bio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bluebird Bio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bluebird Bio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bluebird Bio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bluebird bio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bluebird Bio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bluebird Bio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bluebird Bio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bluebird stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.21 | |||
| Variance | 38.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bluebird Bio to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Bluebird Stock refer to our How to Trade Bluebird Stock guide.You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bluebird Bio. If investors know Bluebird will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bluebird Bio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.30) | Revenue Per Share 0.357 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.337 | Return On Assets (0.36) | Return On Equity (1.87) |
The market value of Bluebird bio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bluebird that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bluebird Bio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bluebird Bio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bluebird Bio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bluebird Bio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bluebird Bio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bluebird Bio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bluebird Bio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.