Southern California Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

BCAL Stock  USD 17.60  0.04  0.23%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Southern California Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.61. Southern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Southern California's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Southern California's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Southern California fundamentals over time.
  
Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 5.67 this year, although the value of Receivables Turnover will most likely fall to 7.39. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 19.6 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to rise to about 12.9 M this year.
A two period moving average forecast for Southern California is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Southern California Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Southern California Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern California's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Southern California Stock Forecast Pattern

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Southern California Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Southern California's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southern California's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.93 and 19.31, respectively. We have considered Southern California's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.60
17.62
Expected Value
19.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern California stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern California stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.1985
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0771
MADMean absolute deviation0.1798
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0114
SAESum of the absolute errors10.61
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Southern California Bancorp price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Southern California. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Southern California

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern California. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.0017.6919.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.2917.9819.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.5517.7717.99
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
15.4717.0018.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Southern California. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Southern California's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Southern California's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Southern California.

Other Forecasting Options for Southern California

For every potential investor in Southern, whether a beginner or expert, Southern California's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southern California's price trends.

Southern California Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southern California stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southern California could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southern California by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Southern California Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Southern California's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Southern California's current price.

Southern California Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southern California stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southern California shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southern California stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southern California Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Southern California Risk Indicators

The analysis of Southern California's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southern California's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Southern California is a strong investment it is important to analyze Southern California's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Southern California's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Southern Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern California to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southern California. If investors know Southern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southern California listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.97)
Earnings Share
(0.29)
Revenue Per Share
3.796
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.37)
Return On Assets
(0)
The market value of Southern California is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southern California's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southern California's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southern California's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southern California's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southern California's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southern California is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southern California's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.