Ategrity Specialty Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| ASIC Stock | USD 18.20 0.32 1.73% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Ategrity Specialty Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 19.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.64. Ategrity Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ategrity Specialty stock prices and determine the direction of Ategrity Specialty Insurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ategrity Specialty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Ategrity Specialty's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.093 |
Using Ategrity Specialty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ategrity Specialty Insurance from the perspective of Ategrity Specialty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Ategrity Specialty Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ategrity Specialty's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ategrity. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ategrity can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ategrity Specialty Insurance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Ategrity Specialty Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 19.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.64.
Ategrity Specialty after-hype prediction price | USD 18.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ategrity Specialty to cross-verify your projections. Ategrity Specialty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ategrity price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ategrity using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ategrity charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ategrity Specialty 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Ategrity Specialty Insurance on the next trading day is expected to be 19.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16, mean absolute percentage error of 1.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ategrity Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ategrity Specialty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ategrity Specialty Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ategrity Specialty | Ategrity Specialty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ategrity Specialty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ategrity Specialty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ategrity Specialty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.27 and 21.55, respectively. We have considered Ategrity Specialty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ategrity Specialty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ategrity Specialty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 81.9628 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0743 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.162 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0594 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.644 |
Predictive Modules for Ategrity Specialty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ategrity Specialty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ategrity Specialty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ategrity Specialty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ategrity Specialty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ategrity Specialty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ategrity Specialty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ategrity Specialty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ategrity Specialty's historical news coverage. Ategrity Specialty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.38 and 20.64, respectively. We have considered Ategrity Specialty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ategrity Specialty is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ategrity Specialty is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ategrity Specialty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ategrity Specialty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ategrity Specialty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ategrity Specialty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.14 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 12 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.20 | 18.51 | 0.05 |
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Ategrity Specialty Hype Timeline
Ategrity Specialty is presently traded for 18.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ategrity is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.51. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Ategrity Specialty is about 3890.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.20. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Ategrity Specialty was presently reported as 10.57. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ategrity Specialty to cross-verify your projections.Ategrity Specialty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ategrity Specialty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ategrity Specialty's future price movements. Getting to know how Ategrity Specialty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ategrity Specialty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOW | Bowhead Specialty Holdings | (0.03) | 8 per month | 2.53 | (0.04) | 3.56 | (3.89) | 12.02 | |
| UVE | Universal Insurance Holdings | (0.83) | 15 per month | 1.91 | (0.0004) | 3.79 | (3.08) | 18.12 | |
| SAFT | Safety Insurance Group | 1.01 | 8 per month | 1.10 | 0.05 | 2.22 | (2.07) | 6.16 | |
| UFCS | United Fire Group | 0.18 | 11 per month | 1.02 | 0.06 | 2.14 | (1.90) | 17.21 | |
| IGIC | International General Insurance | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.05 | 2.20 | (1.66) | 9.34 | |
| ROOT | Root Inc | (0.05) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.49 | (6.51) | 21.60 | |
| EIG | Employers Holdings | (0.28) | 12 per month | 1.66 | 0.02 | 2.14 | (2.15) | 7.78 | |
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Hldgs | (1.29) | 8 per month | 2.92 | 0.04 | 4.24 | (4.89) | 19.93 | |
| NRDS | Nerdwallet | 0.20 | 11 per month | 2.12 | 0.08 | 4.66 | (4.33) | 19.33 | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | 0.47 | 9 per month | 1.53 | (0.05) | 1.95 | (1.75) | 8.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ategrity Specialty
For every potential investor in Ategrity, whether a beginner or expert, Ategrity Specialty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ategrity Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ategrity. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ategrity Specialty's price trends.Ategrity Specialty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ategrity Specialty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ategrity Specialty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ategrity Specialty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ategrity Specialty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ategrity Specialty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ategrity Specialty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ategrity Specialty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ategrity Specialty Insurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 4448.08 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.38) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.34 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.37) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.32) |
Ategrity Specialty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ategrity Specialty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ategrity Specialty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ategrity stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.71) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ategrity Specialty
The number of cover stories for Ategrity Specialty depends on current market conditions and Ategrity Specialty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ategrity Specialty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ategrity Specialty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ategrity Specialty Short Properties
Ategrity Specialty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ategrity Specialty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ategrity Specialty Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ategrity Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ategrity Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 414 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 517.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ategrity Specialty to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Life & Health Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ategrity Specialty. If investors know Ategrity will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ategrity Specialty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Earnings Share 0.97 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.093 |
The market value of Ategrity Specialty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ategrity that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ategrity Specialty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ategrity Specialty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ategrity Specialty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ategrity Specialty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ategrity Specialty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ategrity Specialty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ategrity Specialty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.