Archer Daniels Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| ADM Stock | USD 67.37 0.14 0.21% |
Archer Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Archer Daniels' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Archer Daniels' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Archer Daniels fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Archer Daniels' stock price is about 64. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Archer, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.891 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2239 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.3843 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.2427 | Wall Street Target Price 57.9091 |
Using Archer Daniels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Archer Daniels Midland from the perspective of Archer Daniels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Archer Daniels using Archer Daniels' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Archer using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Archer Daniels' stock price.
Archer Daniels Short Interest
An investor who is long Archer Daniels may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Archer Daniels and may potentially protect profits, hedge Archer Daniels with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 56.5323 | Short Percent 0.0398 | Short Ratio 5.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.8 M | 50 Day MA 60.1838 |
Archer Relative Strength Index
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Archer Daniels Midland on the next trading day is expected to be 67.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.03.Archer Daniels Midland Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Archer Daniels' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Archer. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Archer can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Archer Daniels Midland. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Archer Daniels' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Archer Daniels.
Archer Daniels Implied Volatility | 0.53 |
Archer Daniels' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Archer Daniels Midland stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Archer Daniels' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Archer Daniels stock will not fluctuate a lot when Archer Daniels' options are near their expiration.
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Archer Daniels Midland on the next trading day is expected to be 67.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.03. Archer Daniels after-hype prediction price | USD 67.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Archer Daniels to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Archer contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Archer Daniels Midland will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0331% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Archer Daniels trading at USD 67.37, that is roughly USD 0.0223 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Archer Daniels' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Archer Daniels Midland options at the current volatility level of 0.53%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Archer Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Archer Daniels' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Archer Daniels' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Archer Daniels stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Archer Daniels' open interest, investors have to compare it to Archer Daniels' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Archer Daniels is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Archer. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Archer Daniels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Archer price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Archer using various technical indicators. When you analyze Archer charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Archer Daniels 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Archer Daniels Midland on the next trading day is expected to be 67.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16, mean absolute percentage error of 2.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Archer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Archer Daniels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Archer Daniels Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Archer Daniels | Archer Daniels Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Archer Daniels Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Archer Daniels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Archer Daniels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 65.51 and 69.17, respectively. We have considered Archer Daniels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Archer Daniels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Archer Daniels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2955 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3113 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1557 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 67.0325 |
Predictive Modules for Archer Daniels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Archer Daniels Midland. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Archer Daniels' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Archer Daniels After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Archer Daniels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Archer Daniels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Archer Daniels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Archer Daniels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Archer Daniels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Archer Daniels' historical news coverage. Archer Daniels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 65.54 and 69.20, respectively. We have considered Archer Daniels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Archer Daniels is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Archer Daniels Midland is based on 3 months time horizon.
Archer Daniels Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Archer Daniels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Archer Daniels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Archer Daniels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.83 | 0.25 | 0.05 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
67.37 | 67.37 | 0.00 |
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Archer Daniels Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Archer Daniels Midland is traded for 67.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Archer is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 155.08%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Archer Daniels is about 740.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 67.42. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.44. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Archer Daniels Midland last dividend was issued on the 19th of November 2025. The entity had 105:100 split on the 30th of August 2001. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Archer Daniels to cross-verify your projections.Archer Daniels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Archer Daniels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Archer Daniels' future price movements. Getting to know how Archer Daniels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Archer Daniels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| K | Kellanova | 1.27 | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.54 | (0.48) | 5.34 | |
| KVUE | Kenvue Inc | 0.32 | 11 per month | 0.97 | 0.11 | 2.27 | (2.09) | 15.22 | |
| JBS | JBS NV | 0.02 | 10 per month | 1.49 | 0.12 | 2.58 | (2.78) | 8.67 | |
| BG | Bunge Limited | 1.08 | 8 per month | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3.20 | (1.84) | 6.25 | |
| KHC | Kraft Heinz Co | 0.35 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.95 | (2.54) | 9.17 | |
| TSN | Tyson Foods | 0.26 | 9 per month | 1.13 | 0.15 | 3.15 | (2.03) | 8.77 | |
| HSY | Hershey Co | (2.67) | 8 per month | 1.46 | (0.01) | 2.37 | (2.35) | 6.22 | |
| KMB | Kimberly Clark | 1.27 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.17 | (1.59) | 17.56 | |
| GIS | General Mills | 0.25 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.27 | (2.56) | 6.34 | |
| CHD | Church Dwight | 0.32 | 6 per month | 1.22 | 0 | 2.33 | (1.92) | 10.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Archer Daniels
For every potential investor in Archer, whether a beginner or expert, Archer Daniels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Archer Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Archer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Archer Daniels' price trends.Archer Daniels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Archer Daniels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Archer Daniels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Archer Daniels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Archer Daniels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Archer Daniels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Archer Daniels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Archer Daniels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Archer Daniels Midland entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 35672.24 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.16) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 67.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 67.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.15) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 64.46 |
Archer Daniels Risk Indicators
The analysis of Archer Daniels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Archer Daniels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting archer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Archer Daniels
The number of cover stories for Archer Daniels depends on current market conditions and Archer Daniels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Archer Daniels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Archer Daniels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Archer Daniels Short Properties
Archer Daniels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Archer Daniels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Archer Daniels Midland often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Archer Daniels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Archer Daniels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 493 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 857 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Archer Daniels to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Is Agricultural Products & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Archer Daniels. If investors know Archer will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Archer Daniels listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.891 | Dividend Share 2.03 | Earnings Share 2.46 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.022 |
The market value of Archer Daniels Midland is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Archer that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Archer Daniels' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Archer Daniels' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Archer Daniels' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Archer Daniels' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Archer Daniels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Archer Daniels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Archer Daniels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.