Church Dwight Stock Price Prediction
| CHD Stock | USD 105.37 2.41 2.34% |
Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.226 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9791 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.693 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.9643 | Wall Street Target Price 107.0922 |
Using Church Dwight hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Church Dwight from the perspective of Church Dwight response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Church Dwight using Church Dwight's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Church using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Church Dwight's stock price.
Church Dwight Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Church Dwight's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Church. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Church Dwight stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 105.0085 | Short Percent 0.0241 | Short Ratio 3.19 | Shares Short Prior Month 5 M | 50 Day MA 107.3368 |
Church Dwight Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Church Dwight's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Church. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Church can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Church Dwight. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Church Dwight's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Church Dwight.
Church Dwight Implied Volatility | 0.36 |
Church Dwight's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Church Dwight stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Church Dwight's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Church Dwight stock will not fluctuate a lot when Church Dwight's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Church Dwight to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Church because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Church Dwight after-hype prediction price | USD 105.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Church contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Church Dwight will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0225% per day over the life of the 2025-07-18 option contract. With Church Dwight trading at USD 105.37, that is roughly USD 0.0237 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Church Dwight's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Church Dwight options at the current volatility level of 0.36%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Church Dwight Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Church Dwight After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Church Dwight at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Church Dwight or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Church Dwight, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Church Dwight Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Church Dwight's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Church Dwight's historical news coverage. Church Dwight's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 103.80 and 106.74, respectively. We have considered Church Dwight's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Church Dwight is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Church Dwight is based on 3 months time horizon.
Church Dwight Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Church Dwight is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Church Dwight backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Church Dwight, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.47 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 12 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
105.37 | 105.27 | 0.09 |
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Church Dwight Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Church Dwight is traded for 105.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Church is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 105.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 60.74%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Church Dwight is about 1633.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 105.37. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.52. Church Dwight last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of September 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Church Dwight Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Church Dwight Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Church Dwight's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Church Dwight's future price movements. Getting to know how Church Dwight's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Church Dwight may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AQUI | Aquagold International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 50.00 | |
| LBHIX | Thrivent High Yield | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.25 | (0.48) | 1.92 | |
| MSTSX | Morningstar Unconstrained Allocation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | 0.08 | 1.40 | (1.54) | 10.06 | |
| VIASP | Via Renewables | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.81 | 0.18 | 1.22 | (1.08) | 4.84 | |
| RRTLX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.68 | (0.94) | 4.11 | |
| OSHDF | Oshidori International Holdings | 0.91 | 16 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 70082LAB3 | US70082LAB36 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.46 | (4.54) | 20.47 | |
| SITKF | Sitka Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.75 | 0.28 | 8.33 | (4.76) | 22.99 | |
| RWAYL | MSCI ACWI exAUCONSUMER | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.22 | 0.54 | 0.28 | (0.36) | 1.76 | |
| SEGI | Sycamore Entmt Grp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 10.75 | 0.05 | 16.67 | (25.00) | 61.90 |
Church Dwight Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Church price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Church using various technical indicators. When you analyze Church charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Church Dwight Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Church Dwight stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Church Dwight, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Church Dwight based on analysis of Church Dwight hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Church Dwight's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Church Dwight's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.013 | 0.0115 | 0.0107 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.64 | 3.95 | 4.23 |
Story Coverage note for Church Dwight
The number of cover stories for Church Dwight depends on current market conditions and Church Dwight's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Church Dwight is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Church Dwight's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Church Dwight Short Properties
Church Dwight's future price predictability will typically decrease when Church Dwight's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Church Dwight often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Church Dwight's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Church Dwight's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 246.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 964.1 M |
Complementary Tools for Church Stock analysis
When running Church Dwight's price analysis, check to measure Church Dwight's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Church Dwight is operating at the current time. Most of Church Dwight's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Church Dwight's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Church Dwight's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Church Dwight to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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