Applied Opt Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AAOI Stock | USD 27.13 1.29 4.99% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Applied Opt on the next trading day is expected to be 28.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.02. Applied Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Applied Opt's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Applied Opt Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of July
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Applied Opt on the next trading day is expected to be 28.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02, mean absolute percentage error of 5.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Opt's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Opt Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Opt | Applied Opt Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applied Opt Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Opt's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Opt's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.90 and 35.02, respectively. We have considered Applied Opt's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Opt stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Opt stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.8295 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0167 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1053 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.0186 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Opt
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Opt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Applied Opt
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Opt's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Opt's price trends.Applied Opt Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Opt stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Opt could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Opt by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Opt Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Applied Opt's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Applied Opt's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Opt Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Opt stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Opt shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Opt stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Opt entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied Opt Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Opt's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Opt's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.56 | |||
| Variance | 43.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.27 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.98) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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| BCAT | BlackRock Capital Allocation | |
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Opt to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Opt guide.You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Opt. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied Opt listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Applied Opt is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Opt's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Opt's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied Opt's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Opt's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied Opt's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Applied Opt is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied Opt's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.