Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| AA Stock | USD 62.21 0.93 1.47% |
Alcoa Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alcoa Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Alcoa Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alcoa Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Alcoa Corp's stock price is about 63. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alcoa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.121 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1151 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.6265 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.3022 | Wall Street Target Price 56.3333 |
Using Alcoa Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corp from the perspective of Alcoa Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alcoa Corp using Alcoa Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alcoa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alcoa Corp's stock price.
Alcoa Corp Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Alcoa Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alcoa. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alcoa Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 35.4275 | Short Percent 0.0327 | Short Ratio 1.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.9 M | 50 Day MA 49.828 |
Alcoa Relative Strength Index
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 62.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.27.Alcoa Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Alcoa Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alcoa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alcoa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alcoa Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alcoa Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alcoa Corp.
Alcoa Corp Implied Volatility | 0.68 |
Alcoa Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alcoa Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alcoa Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alcoa Corp's options are near their expiration.
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 62.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.27.
Alcoa Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 62.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alcoa contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alcoa Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0425% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Alcoa Corp trading at USD 62.21, that is roughly USD 0.0264 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alcoa Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alcoa Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.68%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Alcoa Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Alcoa Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Alcoa Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Alcoa Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Alcoa Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Alcoa Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Alcoa Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Alcoa. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Alcoa Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alcoa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alcoa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alcoa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alcoa Corp 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 62.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.78, mean absolute percentage error of 5.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alcoa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alcoa Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alcoa Corp | Alcoa Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alcoa Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alcoa Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alcoa Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.54 and 66.17, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alcoa Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alcoa Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5213 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.1055 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7767 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0362 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 101.27 |
Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alcoa Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alcoa Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alcoa Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alcoa Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alcoa Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alcoa Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alcoa Corp's historical news coverage. Alcoa Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.91 and 65.51, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alcoa Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alcoa Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alcoa Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcoa Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alcoa Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.84 | 3.32 | 2.01 | 0.37 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
62.21 | 62.21 | 0.00 |
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Alcoa Corp Hype Timeline
As of January 27, 2026 Alcoa Corp is listed for 62.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.37. Alcoa is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 138.91%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.84%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa Corp is about 759.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.58. About 82.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Alcoa Corp was presently reported as 23.65. The company last dividend was issued on the 4th of November 2025. Alcoa Corp had 1000:801 split on the 1st of November 2016. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections.Alcoa Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alcoa Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alcoa Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Alcoa Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alcoa Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MOS | The Mosaic | (0.74) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.05 | (4.97) | 11.69 | |
| HMY | Harmony Gold Mining | (0.52) | 12 per month | 2.79 | 0.12 | 6.34 | (5.26) | 15.03 | |
| CDE | Coeur Mining | 1.43 | 10 per month | 3.36 | 0.12 | 6.67 | (5.20) | 15.22 | |
| SUZ | Suzano Papel e | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.87 | 0.08 | 1.99 | (1.69) | 7.81 | |
| WLK | Westlake Chemical | 0.34 | 9 per month | 2.50 | 0.04 | 4.69 | (4.13) | 11.62 | |
| ICL | ICL Israel Chemicals | (0.02) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.07 | (3.62) | 21.00 | |
| MP | MP Materials Corp | 5.27 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 8.61 | (7.40) | 23.61 | |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical | (0.39) | 10 per month | 1.80 | 0.05 | 4.94 | (3.60) | 9.74 | |
| IAG | IAMGold | (0.02) | 8 per month | 2.12 | 0.23 | 5.49 | (4.44) | 18.37 | |
| HL | Hecla Mining | (0.99) | 2 per month | 2.74 | 0.29 | 8.95 | (5.78) | 18.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alcoa Corp
For every potential investor in Alcoa, whether a beginner or expert, Alcoa Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alcoa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alcoa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alcoa Corp's price trends.Alcoa Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alcoa Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alcoa Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alcoa Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alcoa Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alcoa Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alcoa Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alcoa Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alcoa Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alcoa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.63 | |||
| Variance | 13.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alcoa Corp
The number of cover stories for Alcoa Corp depends on current market conditions and Alcoa Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alcoa Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alcoa Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alcoa Corp Short Properties
Alcoa Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alcoa Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alcoa Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 263.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Alcoa Stock refer to our How to Trade Alcoa Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.121 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 4.42 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.