Matthews China Active Etf Price Prediction
| MCH Etf | USD 29.86 0.06 0.20% |
Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Matthews China hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Matthews China Active from the perspective of Matthews China response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Matthews China using Matthews China's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Matthews using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Matthews China's stock price.
Matthews China Implied Volatility | 0.39 |
Matthews China's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Matthews China Active stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Matthews China's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Matthews China stock will not fluctuate a lot when Matthews China's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Matthews China to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Matthews because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Matthews China after-hype prediction price | USD 31.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Matthews contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Matthews China Active will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0244% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Matthews China trading at USD 29.86, that is roughly USD 0.007278 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Matthews China's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Matthews China Active options at the current volatility level of 0.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Matthews China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Matthews China After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Matthews China at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Matthews China or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Matthews China, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Matthews China Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Matthews China's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Matthews China's historical news coverage. Matthews China's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.87 and 32.09, respectively. We have considered Matthews China's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Matthews China is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Matthews China Active is based on 3 months time horizon.
Matthews China Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Matthews China is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Matthews China backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Matthews China, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.08 | 1.15 | 0.26 | 8 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
29.86 | 31.01 | 3.85 |
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Matthews China Hype Timeline
On the 15th of January 2026 Matthews China Active is traded for 29.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.26. Matthews is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 31.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 8.48%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 3.85%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Matthews China is about 37.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 29.60. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Matthews China Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Matthews China Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Matthews China's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Matthews China's future price movements. Getting to know how Matthews China's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Matthews China may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FTDS | First Trust Dividend | (16.17) | 8 per month | 0.58 | 0.05 | 1.68 | (1.40) | 3.61 | |
| RFLR | Innovator ETFs Trust | 0.13 | 3 per month | 0.63 | (0.01) | 1.26 | (1.38) | 3.72 | |
| JPSV | Jpmorgan Active Small | (18.28) | 4 per month | 0.71 | 0.01 | 1.95 | (1.65) | 5.24 | |
| EAOR | iShares ESG Aware | 5.75 | 12 per month | 0.30 | (0.10) | 0.75 | (0.74) | 2.08 | |
| RAYC | Rayliant Asset Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | (0.01) | 1.81 | (1.18) | 7.60 | |
| HDG | ProShares Hedge Replication | (0.08) | 2 per month | 0.21 | (0.21) | 0.53 | (0.53) | 1.51 | |
| KHYB | KraneShares Asia Pacific | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.60) | 0.29 | (0.16) | 0.62 | |
| SQLV | Royce Quant Small Cap | (0.32) | 2 per month | 0.59 | 0.04 | 1.97 | (1.36) | 4.17 | |
| COWS | Amplify Cash Flow | (0.08) | 2 per month | 0.69 | 0.06 | 1.78 | (1.26) | 4.07 | |
| SHUS | Exchange Listed Funds | 0.46 | 1 per month | 0.49 | (0.04) | 0.99 | (0.94) | 2.75 |
Matthews China Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Matthews price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Matthews using various technical indicators. When you analyze Matthews charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Matthews China Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Matthews China stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Matthews China Active, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Matthews China based on analysis of Matthews China hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Matthews China's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Matthews China's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Matthews China
The number of cover stories for Matthews China depends on current market conditions and Matthews China's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Matthews China is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Matthews China's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Matthews China Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
The market value of Matthews China Active is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Matthews that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Matthews China's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Matthews China's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Matthews China's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Matthews China's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Matthews China's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Matthews China is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Matthews China's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.