First Merchants Stock Price Prediction

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 36.55 44.35 46.02 Details

Naive Forecast Low Next High 36.72 38.39 40.06 Details

6 Analysts Consensus Low Target High 41.10 45.17 50.14 Details

Earnings Estimates (0) Low Projected EPS High 0.90 0.95 0.97 Details

First Merchants After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

First Merchants Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

First Merchants Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Expected Return	Period Volatility	Hype Elasticity	Related Elasticity	News Density	Related Density	Expected Hype
0.21	1.63	0.10	0.10	4 Events / Month	6 Events / Month	In about 4 days

Latest traded price	Expected after-news price	Potential return on next major news	Average after-hype volatility
40.61	40.74	0.32	339.58   Notes

First Merchants Hype Timeline

First Merchants is currently traded for 40.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. First is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 40.74 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on First Merchants is about 339.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 40.71. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.05 B. Net Income was 201.4 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 615.41 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 4 days. Check out First Merchants Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade First Stock refer to our How to Trade First Stock guide.

First Merchants Related Hype Analysis

First Merchants Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

The successful prediction of First Merchants stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Merchants, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Merchants based on analysis of First Merchants hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.

The number of cover stories for First Merchants depends on current market conditions and First Merchants' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that First Merchants is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about First Merchants' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

First Merchants' future price predictability will typically decrease when First Merchants' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of First Merchants often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential First Merchants' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. First Merchants' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.

When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.