Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Price Prediction
| ARQT Stock | USD 14.91 0.36 2.47% |
Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.17) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.55) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.175 | Wall Street Target Price 21.1429 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.20) |
Using Arcutis Biotherapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics from the perspective of Arcutis Biotherapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arcutis Biotherapeutics using Arcutis Biotherapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arcutis using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' stock price.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long Arcutis Biotherapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arcutis Biotherapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arcutis Biotherapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 13.1242 | Short Percent 0.2137 | Short Ratio 10.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.6 M | 50 Day MA 14.0596 |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arcutis Biotherapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arcutis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arcutis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arcutis Biotherapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arcutis Biotherapeutics.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Implied Volatility | 1.17 |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arcutis Biotherapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arcutis Biotherapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arcutis Biotherapeutics to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arcutis because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 14.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arcutis contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arcutis Biotherapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0731% per day over the life of the 2025-09-19 option contract. With Arcutis Biotherapeutics trading at USD 14.91, that is roughly USD 0.0109 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arcutis Biotherapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arcutis Biotherapeutics options at the current volatility level of 1.17%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Arcutis Biotherapeutics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Arcutis Biotherapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arcutis Biotherapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arcutis Biotherapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arcutis Biotherapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arcutis Biotherapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arcutis Biotherapeutics' historical news coverage. Arcutis Biotherapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.53 and 17.57, respectively. We have considered Arcutis Biotherapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arcutis Biotherapeutics is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arcutis Biotherapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arcutis Biotherapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arcutis Biotherapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arcutis Biotherapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 3.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
14.91 | 14.55 | 0.00 |
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Arcutis Biotherapeutics Hype Timeline
Arcutis Biotherapeutics is presently traded for 14.91. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Arcutis is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arcutis Biotherapeutics is about 1276.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.90. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.04. Arcutis Biotherapeutics had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Arcutis Biotherapeutics Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Arcutis Biotherapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arcutis Biotherapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Arcutis Biotherapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arcutis Biotherapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DAWN | Day One Biopharmaceuticals | (0.20) | 8 per month | 3.07 | (0.05) | 5.90 | (5.56) | 16.05 | |
| PHAT | Phathom Pharmaceuticals | 0.14 | 11 per month | 5.47 | 0.11 | 10.95 | (9.12) | 99.31 | |
| BPMC | Blueprint Medicines Corp | 0.03 | 6 per month | 0.61 | 0.16 | 5.43 | (1.91) | 26.28 | |
| LYRA | Lyra Therapeutics | (1.38) | 10 per month | 7.61 | 0.09 | 18.00 | (15.85) | 342.66 | |
| CGEM | Cullinan Oncology LLC | 0.23 | 8 per month | 3.26 | (0.01) | 4.91 | (5.34) | 16.72 | |
| KROS | Keros Therapeutics | (0.03) | 12 per month | 2.19 | (0.07) | 3.24 | (4.23) | 10.31 | |
| CRNX | Crinetics Pharmaceuticals | (0.01) | 9 per month | 2.99 | (0.03) | 4.17 | (5.78) | 15.86 | |
| RVMD | Revolution Medicines | (0.99) | 11 per month | 2.53 | (0.02) | 3.61 | (4.27) | 18.30 | |
| BDTX | Black Diamond Therapeutics | 0.08 | 10 per month | 3.25 | 0.27 | 9.03 | (5.02) | 18.23 |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arcutis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arcutis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arcutis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Arcutis Biotherapeutics Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arcutis Biotherapeutics, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics based on analysis of Arcutis Biotherapeutics hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arcutis Biotherapeutics's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arcutis Biotherapeutics's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Interest Debt Per Share | 3.4 | 1.14 | 1.17 | Revenue Per Share | 0.86 | 1.62 | 1.71 |
Story Coverage note for Arcutis Biotherapeutics
The number of cover stories for Arcutis Biotherapeutics depends on current market conditions and Arcutis Biotherapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arcutis Biotherapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arcutis Biotherapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arcutis Biotherapeutics Short Properties
Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Arcutis Biotherapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arcutis Biotherapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arcutis Biotherapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcutis Biotherapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 121 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 228 M |
Additional Tools for Arcutis Stock Analysis
When running Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Arcutis Biotherapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcutis Biotherapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcutis Biotherapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.