Unitil Stock Market Value
| UTL Stock | USD 53.78 0.46 0.85% |
| Symbol | UNITIL |
Is Multi-Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UNITIL. If investors know UNITIL will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UNITIL listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of UNITIL is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UNITIL that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UNITIL's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UNITIL's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UNITIL's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UNITIL's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UNITIL's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UNITIL is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UNITIL's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
UNITIL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to UNITIL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of UNITIL.
| 11/21/2024 |
| 12/21/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in UNITIL on November 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding UNITIL or generate 0.0% return on investment in UNITIL over 30 days. UNITIL is related to or competes with Avista, Allete, Black Hills, Montauk Renewables, Companhia Paranaense, NorthWestern, and Otter Tail. Unitil Corporation, a public utility holding company, engages in the distribution of electricity and natural gas More
UNITIL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure UNITIL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess UNITIL upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.85 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.41) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.13 |
UNITIL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for UNITIL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as UNITIL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use UNITIL historical prices to predict the future UNITIL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.24) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.62) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of UNITIL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
UNITIL Backtested Returns
UNITIL owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0985, which indicates the firm had a -0.0985% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. UNITIL exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate UNITIL's variance of 2.68, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0542, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, UNITIL's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding UNITIL is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, UNITIL has a negative expected return of -0.16%. Please make sure to validate UNITIL's jensen alpha, skewness, as well as the relationship between the Skewness and day typical price , to decide if UNITIL performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation | 0.92 |
Excellent predictability
UNITIL has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between UNITIL time series from 21st of November 2024 to 6th of December 2024 and 6th of December 2024 to 21st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of UNITIL price movement. The serial correlation of 0.92 indicates that approximately 92.0% of current UNITIL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.92 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.92 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.16 |
UNITIL lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is UNITIL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting UNITIL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of UNITIL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that UNITIL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
UNITIL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If UNITIL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if UNITIL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in UNITIL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
UNITIL Lagged Returns
When evaluating UNITIL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of UNITIL stock have on its future price. UNITIL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, UNITIL autocorrelation shows the relationship between UNITIL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in UNITIL.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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UNITIL technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.