TRANSCORP HOTELS (Nigeria) Market Value
| TRANSCOHOT | 149.80 7.40 5.20% |
| Symbol | TRANSCORP |
TRANSCORP HOTELS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TRANSCORP HOTELS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TRANSCORP HOTELS.
| 05/06/2025 |
| 08/04/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TRANSCORP HOTELS on May 6, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in TRANSCORP HOTELS over 90 days.
TRANSCORP HOTELS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TRANSCORP HOTELS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.59 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.54) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.19 |
TRANSCORP HOTELS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TRANSCORP HOTELS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TRANSCORP HOTELS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TRANSCORP HOTELS historical prices to predict the future TRANSCORP HOTELS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.032 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1157 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.29) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.22) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TRANSCORP HOTELS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC Backtested Returns
As of now, TRANSCORP Stock is very steady. TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0327, which indicates the firm had a 0.0327 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for TRANSCORP HOTELS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate TRANSCORP HOTELS's risk adjusted performance of 0.032, and Standard Deviation of 2.82 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0958%. TRANSCORP HOTELS has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.36, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning TRANSCORP HOTELS are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, TRANSCORP HOTELS is likely to outperform the market. TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC currently owns a risk of 2.93%. Please validate TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the kurtosis and price action indicator , to decide if TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC will be following its current price history.
Auto-correlation | -0.46 |
Modest reverse predictability
TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TRANSCORP HOTELS time series from 6th of May 2025 to 20th of June 2025 and 20th of June 2025 to 4th of August 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC price movement. The serial correlation of -0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current TRANSCORP HOTELS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.46 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.73 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 24.8 |
TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TRANSCORP HOTELS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TRANSCORP HOTELS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TRANSCORP HOTELS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TRANSCORP HOTELS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TRANSCORP HOTELS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TRANSCORP HOTELS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TRANSCORP HOTELS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TRANSCORP HOTELS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TRANSCORP HOTELS Lagged Returns
When evaluating TRANSCORP HOTELS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TRANSCORP HOTELS stock have on its future price. TRANSCORP HOTELS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TRANSCORP HOTELS autocorrelation shows the relationship between TRANSCORP HOTELS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TRANSCORP HOTELS PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |