Carnival Stock Market Value
| CCL Stock | USD 29.78 0.96 3.12% |
| Symbol | Carnival |
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carnival. If investors know Carnival will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carnival that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Carnival 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Carnival's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Carnival.
| 04/25/2025 |
| 07/24/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Carnival on April 25, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carnival or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carnival over 90 days. Carnival is related to or competes with Royal Caribbean, Airbnb, Expedia, Booking Holdings, Norwegian Cruise, and TripAdvisor. Carnival Corporation plc operates as a leisure travel company More
Carnival Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Carnival's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Carnival upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2186 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.53 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.54) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.07 |
Carnival Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Carnival's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Carnival's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Carnival historical prices to predict the future Carnival's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2689 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3352 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0792 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2808 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4072 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carnival Backtested Returns
Carnival appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Carnival secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.32, which signifies that the company had a 0.32 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Carnival's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.79% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Carnival's Mean Deviation of 1.77, downside deviation of 1.96, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2689 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Carnival holds a performance score of 24. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.92, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Carnival will likely underperform. Please check Carnival's semi variance, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis , to make a quick decision on whether Carnival's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.93 |
Excellent predictability
Carnival has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carnival time series from 25th of April 2025 to 9th of June 2025 and 9th of June 2025 to 24th of July 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carnival price movement. The serial correlation of 0.93 indicates that approximately 93.0% of current Carnival price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.93 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.81 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 6.8 |
Carnival lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Carnival stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Carnival's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Carnival returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Carnival has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Carnival regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Carnival stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Carnival stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Carnival stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Carnival Lagged Returns
When evaluating Carnival's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Carnival stock have on its future price. Carnival autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Carnival autocorrelation shows the relationship between Carnival stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Carnival.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ProphetCheck out Carnival Correlation, Carnival Volatility and Carnival Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Carnival. For more information on how to buy Carnival Stock please use our How to buy in Carnival Stock guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Carnival technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.