Tillys Inc Stock Price Prediction
| TLYS Stock | USD 3.78 0.11 3.00% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
44
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Tillys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tillys Inc from the perspective of Tillys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Tillys to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Tillys because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Tillys after-hype prediction price | USD 3.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Tillys |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tillys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tillys After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tillys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tillys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tillys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tillys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tillys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tillys' historical news coverage. Tillys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 7.65, respectively. We have considered Tillys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tillys is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tillys Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tillys Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tillys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tillys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tillys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 3.87 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.78 | 3.78 | 0.00 |
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Tillys Hype Timeline
Tillys Inc is at this time traded for 3.78. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Tillys is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.47%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tillys is about 12520.59%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.77. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.87. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Tillys Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.98. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.38. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Tillys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Tillys Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tillys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tillys' future price movements. Getting to know how Tillys' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tillys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GCO | Genesco | 0.44 | 8 per month | 3.35 | (0.03) | 6.15 | (4.32) | 17.20 | |
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival | (2.92) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.16 | (5.85) | 16.24 | |
| JILL | JJill Inc | 0.30 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 3.42 | (3.51) | 19.27 | |
| CTRN | Citi Trends | 0.75 | 8 per month | 2.61 | 0.05 | 5.18 | (4.32) | 17.32 | |
| LE | Lands End | 0.24 | 12 per month | 3.53 | (0.02) | 5.83 | (6.89) | 17.18 | |
| ZUMZ | Zumiez Inc | 1.29 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.33 | (5.10) | 17.19 | |
| CATO | Cato Corporation | 0.30 | 4 per month | 4.14 | 0.0009 | 5.64 | (5.02) | 17.59 | |
| DXLG | Destination XL Group | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.73 | (5.78) | 14.71 | |
| DLTH | Duluth Holdings | (0.09) | 7 per month | 2.72 | 0.04 | 5.73 | (4.24) | 24.31 | |
| HIBB | Hibbett Sports | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BKE | Buckle Inc | (0.62) | 7 per month | 1.36 | 0.06 | 4.83 | (2.37) | 7.75 |
Tillys Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tillys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tillys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tillys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Tillys Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Tillys stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Tillys Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Tillys based on analysis of Tillys hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Tillys's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Tillys's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Tillys
The number of cover stories for Tillys depends on current market conditions and Tillys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tillys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tillys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tillys Short Properties
Tillys' future price predictability will typically decrease when Tillys' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tillys Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tillys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tillys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 95 M |
Additional Tools for Tillys Stock Analysis
When running Tillys' price analysis, check to measure Tillys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tillys is operating at the current time. Most of Tillys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tillys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tillys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tillys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.