Orchid Island Capital Stock Price Prediction
| ORC Stock | USD 7.06 0.02 0.28% |
Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.53) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.145 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.53 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6933 | Wall Street Target Price 8 |
Using Orchid Island hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Orchid Island Capital from the perspective of Orchid Island response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Orchid Island using Orchid Island's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Orchid using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Orchid Island's stock price.
Orchid Island Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Orchid Island's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Orchid. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Orchid Island stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 7.6337 | Short Percent 0.0387 | Short Ratio 1.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.5 M | 50 Day MA 7.059 |
Orchid Island Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Orchid Island's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Orchid. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Orchid can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Orchid Island Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Orchid Island's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Orchid Island.
Orchid Island Implied Volatility | 0.88 |
Orchid Island's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Orchid Island Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Orchid Island's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Orchid Island stock will not fluctuate a lot when Orchid Island's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Orchid Island to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Orchid because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Orchid Island after-hype prediction price | USD 7.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Orchid contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Orchid Island Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.055% per day over the life of the 2025-10-17 option contract. With Orchid Island trading at USD 7.06, that is roughly USD 0.003883 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Orchid Island's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Orchid Island Capital options at the current volatility level of 0.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Orchid Island Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Orchid Island After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Orchid Island at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Orchid Island or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Orchid Island, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Orchid Island Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Orchid Island's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Orchid Island's historical news coverage. Orchid Island's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.72 and 8.42, respectively. We have considered Orchid Island's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Orchid Island is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Orchid Island Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Orchid Island Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Orchid Island is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Orchid Island backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Orchid Island, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.34 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.06 | 7.07 | 0.14 |
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Orchid Island Hype Timeline
On the 20th of July Orchid Island Capital is traded for 7.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Orchid is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Orchid Island is about 1839.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.08. The company reported the last year's revenue of 54.41 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 37.66 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 48.74 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Orchid Island Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Orchid Island Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Orchid Island's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Orchid Island's future price movements. Getting to know how Orchid Island's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Orchid Island may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARR | ARMOUR Residential REIT | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.89 | 0.11 | 2.74 | (1.53) | 9.06 | |
| EFC | Ellington Financial | (0.08) | 7 per month | 0.89 | 0.05 | 1.62 | (1.34) | 7.20 | |
| TWO | Two Harbors Investments | 0.12 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.58 | (3.68) | 8.96 | |
| DX | Dynex Capital | 0.30 | 9 per month | 0.93 | 0.03 | 2.06 | (1.51) | 6.79 | |
| EARN | Ellington Residential Mortgage | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.81 | 0.15 | 2.49 | (1.51) | 5.85 | |
| OXLC | Oxford Lane Capital | 0.09 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.66 | (1.98) | 5.91 | |
| CLM | Cornerstone Strategic Value | 0.03 | 4 per month | 0.87 | 0.10 | 2.08 | (1.24) | 4.08 |
Orchid Island Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Orchid price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Orchid using various technical indicators. When you analyze Orchid charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Orchid Island Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Orchid Island stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Orchid Island Capital, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Orchid Island based on analysis of Orchid Island hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Orchid Island's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Orchid Island's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | PTB Ratio | 0.9 | 0.8 | Dividend Yield | 0.24 | 0.21 |
Story Coverage note for Orchid Island
The number of cover stories for Orchid Island depends on current market conditions and Orchid Island's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Orchid Island is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Orchid Island's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Orchid Island Short Properties
Orchid Island's future price predictability will typically decrease when Orchid Island's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Orchid Island Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Orchid Island's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Orchid Island's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 65.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 409.9 M |
Complementary Tools for Orchid Stock analysis
When running Orchid Island's price analysis, check to measure Orchid Island's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Orchid Island is operating at the current time. Most of Orchid Island's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Orchid Island's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Orchid Island's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Orchid Island to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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